Bush woos a child on the campaign trail.

STRATEGY

In his bid to reclaim the office that his father lost to Bill Clinton in 1992, George W. Bush has accumulated enormous advantages over other Republican prospects. Money has rained on him like a Texas Hill Country thunderstorm. If endorsements were trophies, he could fill his Statehouse office.

Money and endorsements have come his way based more on what supporters believe he represents than what they actually know. That is where hype and hope collide, inevitably forcing Bush to carry the burden of high expectations. His campaign will be watched for its technical competence, its ability to create strong television appeal and coherent themes.

Remembering the Suburbs
It is an axiom of modern presidential politics that victory goes to the candidate who successfully woos independent suburban voters. Bush wants to seize this middle ground, by telling suburbanites that he does not endorse the brand of conservativism practiced by the Republican Congress -- and espoused by his Republican rivals who are closer to the religious right.

The GOP has lost ground in swing-state suburbia, because people view the Republican Congress as mean-spirited, divisive and obstructionist. Bush is trying to eradicate that image and to demonstrate that inclusiveness and conservatism are not contradictory concepts.

Compassionate Conservative
"Should the Republican Party be led by someone who boasts of a hard heart, I think not," Bush says. "You can't lead by dividing people, pitting one group against another."

He repeatedly insists that society's have-nots "should not be left behind" -- a line that infuriates the Democrats, who complain that Bush is trying to steal their ancestral theme.

Family Values
Bush also makes it clear that he shares the conservative antipathy toward Bill Clinton's personal conduct. Polls suggest this is safe ground, because "scandal fatigue" seems to be afflicting much of the electorate -- and hurting Vice President Al Gore. The hope is that swing voters will want to turn a page and start fresh. Bush seeks to touch this nerve, promising that he would "uphold the dignity of the office. ... It feels like an old era of American politics is coming to an end. We will show that politics, after a time of tarnished ideals, can be higher and better."

Some in the Republican Party have said they are willing to shelve the harder edges of party orthodoxy to embrace Bush's concept of "compassionate conservatism." They see in Bush a candidate who can win over the votes of women who provided Bill Clinton twice with decisive margins for victory. They see in him a candidate who can win over Hispanics, an untapped and possibly emerging political force. They see in him a chance to recast the GOP from the harsh visage of the party's congressional leaders in a far softer, more appealing light.