Tuesday, December 23, 2003
As Democratic primary nears, turnout is 'anybody's guess'
Candidates' Web sites
Learn more about the Democratic presidential candidates online at their campaign Web sites:
• Carol Mosley Braun -
www.carolforpresident.com
• Wesley Clark - www.clark04.com
• Howard Dean -
www.deanforamerica.com
• Sen. John Edwards - www.johnedwards2004.com
• Rep. Dick Gephardt -
www.dickgephardt2004.com
• Sen. John Kerry -
www.johnkerry.com
• Rep. Dennis Kucinich - www.kucinich.us
• Sen. Joe Lieberman - www.joe2004.com
• The Rev. Al Sharpton - www.sharpton2004.org
* Learn more about President Bush's campaign for a second term from his site: www.georgewbush.com
Primary voting
* Arizona's Democratic presidential preference election is Feb. 3.
• The election is open only to registered Democrats. Republicans, independents and unaffiliated voters cannot vote.
• To vote, you must be registered by Jan. 5.
• Voter registration information is available from the Pima County Recorder's Office at 740-4330 or online at www.recorder.co.pima.az.us.
• Registration forms also are available from the Recorder's Office, 115 N. Church Ave., Motor Vehicle Division branches, post offices, libraries, political party headquarters, and city and town halls.
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By C.J. Karamargin
ARIZONA DAILY STAR
Close to 800,000 Democrats will be eligible to vote six weeks from today when Arizona goes to the polls to pick a candidate who could challenge President Bush next November.
No one is certain how many will actually cast a ballot on Feb. 3. State and local election officials are unwilling to speculate on voter turnout, saying it's too early to predict.
"It's anybody's guess," said Secretary of State Jan Brewer, a Republican who oversees state elections. "It's a highly inexact science."
Pima County Recorder F. Ann Rodriguez, a Democrat, agreed. "It's a good question," she said. "I don't know."
Known officially as a Democratic presidential preference election, the contest features nine major candidates. One of them, Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio, made a campaign swing through Phoenix on Monday. Another, retired Gen. Wesley Clark, is scheduled to visit Kino Community Hospital in Tucson at 10:30 a.m. Saturday.
Arizona goes to the polls on the first Tuesday in February, along with New Mexico, South Carolina, Oklahoma, Delaware, Missouri and Virginia. The contest is open only to registered Democrats.
Turnout predictions cut a wide swath among state and local party officials, ranging from less than 30 percent to 40 percent.
But they also acknowledge that their numbers are the result of little more than gazing into a political crystal ball.
"It's going to be difficult, because these are uncharted waters for us," said Jim Pederson, state party chairman. "We just don't have any basis for predicting this."
Only Republicans and Libertarians took part in Arizona's last presidential preference election three years ago. GOP turnout then was 35 percent.
"That's very impressive," Pederson said. "If we could do that well, it would be great."
Noting that turnout in primary elections typically hovers between 25 percent and 30 percent, Pederson speculated that the turnout in February could hit 27 percent.
Paul Eckerstrom, county party chairman, guessed it could be as high as 40 percent in Pima County, home to nearly 152,000 registered Democrats, and 35 percent statewide.
"It's going to be high and may be higher than people think because of our high profile," he said. "There's a lot of interest this time."
* Contact reporter C.J. Karamargin at 573-4243 or at cjkarama@azstarnet.com.
