Sunday, November 9, 2003
1 election down, 1 big one on the way
WHO'S ON THE '04 BALLOT IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA
• President and vice president
• 1 U.S. Senate seat
• 2 U.S. House seats
• 6 Arizona Senate seats
• 12 Arizona House seats
• All major Pima County offices
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By C.J. Karamargin
ARIZONA DAILY STAR
The campaign is over. Let the campaign begin.
As the dust settles on the election of 2003, a distinct rumble can be heard in the distance. It's getting louder by the day. Soon it will be a roar.
Brace yourself. The election of 2004 is only a year away.
A host of federal, state and local offices are up for grabs next year. As a result, a veritable stampede of candidates will soon set loose upon Arizona.
In a matter of months, the campaign trail will look like Interstate 10 at rush hour.
"It should be intense," predicted Paul Eckerstrom, chairman of the Pima County Democratic Party.
The herd of once and future politicos on next year's ballot will make last week's Tucson contest seem like a warm-up act.
The mayor's post and three City Council seats were decided in the city election. Come next November, a typical Tucson voter will be asked to fill at least three times as many jobs.
"It's a long list," said GOP pollster and strategist Margaret Kenski.
At the top of it is the presidency. The 2004 race for the White House has taken on new significance in Arizona because of our Feb. 3 primary. The early contest means state Democrats will play a crucial role in picking the candidate who will challenge President Bush.
"Obviously," said University of Arizona political science professor John Garcia, "that's going to be a big deal."
Howard Dean, John Kerry, John Edwards, Dick Gephardt - the parade of presidential hopefuls who have marched into Tucson in recent months is a good sign that Arizona is more than a mere stopover on the political map.
On Monday we can add Gen. Wesley Clark to the roll of visiting vote-seekers. The former NATO commander is scheduled to make a quick stop at the Veterans Affairs Medical Center before heading to Phoenix.
If choosing the leader of the free world isn't enough of a responsibility, Arizona voters also get to determine the fate of a U.S. Senate seat occupied by one of the country's best-known and most outspoken lawmakers.
John McCain has already indicated he will seek a fourth term. The big question: Will the Democrats find someone brave enough to challenge him?
Kenski thinks it would be an exercise in futility. "McCain is completely safe," she said. "They're wasting their time to come up with a candidate to run against him."
All 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives are also up next year. Eight of those seats are occupied by Arizonans, and two of those now belong to Tucsonans.
Jim Kolbe, a 10-term Republican, and Raúl Grijalva, a freshman Democrat, are both expected to seek re-election. Neither one, Kenski said, appears vulnerable.
Then there are the 90 seats in the Arizona Senate and House of Representatives. All are on the block. Tucson-area lawmakers occupy 18 seats.
"I want to field a good candidate in every single race," said Eckerstrom, with an eye on the seven local state legislative seats held by Republicans.
Finally, there's a whole slew of races that cut closer to home. These include every member of the Pima County Board of Supervisors as well as sheriff, county attorney, assessor, school superintendent, treasurer and recorder.
So far, no incumbents have announced they won't be seeking re-election.
As in the Tucson election, when no incumbent was turned out of office, the men and women on next year's ballot who want to hold onto their jobs probably will have an edge. The power of incumbency, Garcia said, is one of those facts of political life.
"Incumbents will be in decent shape," he predicted.
Studies show that a crowded field of candidates often leads voters to follow "basic party inclination" on Election Day, Kenski noted. That means casting ballots along party lines.
But with so many candidates running for so many offices in so many levels of government, Kenski said, there is a risk of "voter fatigue."
"Voters get confused by the political system," she said. "It isn't clear. It isn't neat. It isn't tidy. It's a mess. The low turnout we see is a function of that."
Then again, for the political junkies among us, this is the best of times.
Take Clague Van Slyke. The Tucson lawyer was a big backer of the transportation initiative on last week's city ballot. He campaigned hard for it. Donated money and time. Went on local talk radio to make the case.
The initiative was pulverized by voters on Tuesday. Van Slyke was on a plane the next morning, headed for New Hampshire where he was planning to pound the pavement for John Edwards, his man in the presidential race.
"This is my idea of a break," Van Slyke said last week from the East Coast. "Call me sick, but I've always been politically active."
As for resting between campaigns, Van Slyke would have none of it. There's no time for rest in a busy political season. Besides, he said, "It's like falling off a bike."
* Contact reporter C.J. Karamargin at 573-4243 or at cjkarama@azstarnet.com.
