Sunday, November 2, 2003
Strategists watching 2 gubernatorial races for clues to '04 vote
On Tuesday ballot
A look at some of the notable races and ballot items that voters will be deciding Tuesday.
* KENTUCKY: Republican U.S. Rep. Ernie Fletcher and Democratic Attorney General Ben Chandler seek open governor's seat. Contest influenced by problems of term-limited Democratic Gov. Paul Patton, who acknowledged an extramarital affair but denied allegations that he used his office to get back at his former mistress.
* MISSISSIPPI: Democratic Gov. Ronnie Musgrove faces challenge from Haley Barbour, former head of Republican National Committee and Washington lobbyist. Well-funded race in which Barbour is touting Bush connections, Musgrove is accusing him of being a Washington insider.
* NEW JERSEY: Both parties seeking to break 20-20 tie in state Senate; Democrats hold narrow margin of control in state Assembly.
* PHILADELPHIA: Mayor John Street seeking a second term, challenged by Republican Sam Katz. Street's poll numbers rose after revelations that FBI the bugged his office; investigators won't discuss the case, but have interviewed people who received city contracts.
* HOUSTON: Bill White, an Energy Department deputy secretary in the Clinton administration, leads field of nine in mayoral race. He spent $2.2 million of his own money in the most expensive mayoral contest in the nation's fourth-largest city.
* SAN FRANCISCO: Entrepreneur Gavin Newsom leads race to replace longtime politician Willie Brown, who was term-limited. Newsom's successful 2002 ballot initiative to get panhandlers off city streets won him attention.
* RICHMOND, VA.: Former Gov. L. Douglas Wilder is pushing a referendum to have the mayor elected rather than appointed by the City Council. Black leaders say it will dilute the black vote; Wilder, who is black, says it would help revive the city.
* MASS TRANSIT: Ballot questions ask cities to provide funds to create or expand light rail systems in Tucson, Houston and Kansas City.
* MAINE CASINO: Ballot initiative would allow two Indian tribes to build Maine's first casino, a proposed $650 million project. Opponents say it would tarnish the state's outdoorsy image.
* NEW YORK ELECTIONS: Ballot question would eliminate party primaries and hold nonpartisan elections for New York City's mayor and other posts. Mayor Michael Bloomberg used $2 million of his own money to push the proposal.
* SAN FRANCISCO WAGE: Ballot question would establish minimum wage of $8.50 an hour for most workers in San Francisco.
* DENVER STRESS: "Peace initiative" would require Denver's City Council to implement steps to reduce stress.
SOURCE: The Associated Press
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By Robert Tanner
THE ASSOCIATED PRESS
Two Southern Democratic governorships could well flip to the GOP when voters go to the polls Tuesday, with strategists looking for clues to next year's presidential race in the results from Kentucky and Mississippi.
Mississippi's Democratic Gov. Ronnie Musgrove faces a well-funded challenge from national GOP heavyweight Haley Barbour in one of the top races of this off-year election.
In another, the contest for Kentucky's open seat has been run in the shadow of an infidelity scandal that disrupted Democratic Gov. Paul Patton's final term.
The races - along with last month's California recall and an open race for Louisiana governor later this month - turn largely on personalities and local issues, but they may also offer hints at successful political strategies nationally. Analysts are looking for what voters want as they seek victories in 2004.
"There's a little more at stake here nationally than these governors' races," said GOP pollster Neil Newhouse, who said Democrats "test-marketed their anti-Bush campaign theme" in the Kentucky race. He is working for the Republican there.
Elsewhere, there are open seats for mayor in Houston, Philadelphia and San Francisco, and voters could break the tie that has left New Jersey's state Senate split evenly between Republicans and Demo-crats.
Virginia and Mississippi will also hold legislative elections. Voters will decide on gambling issues in Maine, Indiana and Colorado; mass transit in Tucson, Houston and Kansas City, Mo.; even an anti-stress proposal in Denver.
In Kentucky, Democratic Attorney General Ben Chandler faces U.S. Rep. Ernie Fletcher. Chandler has distanced himself from Patton, dogged by a scandal over an affair and allegations that he used his office to get back at his former mistress.
In Mississippi, Musgrove has made Barbour's inside-the-Beltway connections a top complaint. Barbour is a former chairman of the Republican National Committee and a Washington lobbyist.
Polls last week showed the GOP candidates leading in both states, with Fletcher holding a healthy lead and Barbour just slightly ahead in Mississippi.
"Both these states are opportunities for the Bush White House," said political science Professor Earl Black at Rice University, an expert on the South.
In Kentucky, Democrats are making Bush part of the fight. A vote for Chandler, former governor and U.S. Sen. Wendell Ford told a crowd in Harrodsburg, would "send a signal to Washington that we don't like the direction we're going."
And Republicans outside the state have jumped in, with nearly $2 million spent by the Republican Governors Association, according to those close to both campaigns.
Musgrove has shied away from making his party affiliation a selling point. The word "Democrat" doesn't appear on his Web home page, though he twice describes himself as a "conservative."
The races have wide implications in the South, too, where Republicans have for decades been whittling away at the once "solid South," though Demo-crats hold a number of governorships and remain competitive.
