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Arizona's chances of making a bowl game were once so miniscule that they didn't merit discussion, much less argument.

Following wins over Washington, UCLA and then-No. 2 Oregon, the Wildcats' bowl hopes are now as easy as 1, 2, 3.

By our calculations, Arizona (5-6 overall, 4-4 Pac-10) is three steps away from an invitation to either the Las Vegas or Armed Forces bowls.

The Wildcats must defeat Arizona State in the regular-season finale Dec. 1, get help from a pair of conference teams and then — finally — receive an invitation from one of the conference's two likely remaining bowl games.

Sound complicated? We'll walk you through it:

Arizona will make a bowl game if the following three things happen:

1Arizona defeats Arizona State when the teams meet Dec. 1. All other scenarios are worthless if the Wildcats fall in Tempe in the annual "Duel in the Desert." An Arizona win would give the Wildcats a 6-6 record and make them eligible for the postseason for the second consecutive season.

Expect Arizona State to be extra motivated: a win over USC on Thanksgiving night would put the Sun Devils in a position to lock up the Pac-10 title — and earn a Rose Bowl bid — with a victory over Arizona. A loss to the Trojans would force ASU to win its finale just to finish in the conversation for either a Holiday Bowl or Sun Bowl bid.

Arizona, meanwhile, will be in familiar territory.

The Wildcats have played Arizona State five times in the last 11 years with a chance to secure a bowl berth. Arizona State was victorious four times — in 1996, 1999, 2000 and 2006 — with the UA securing an Insight.com Bowl bid in 1997 with a 28-16 victory at ASU.

"The ASU game is going to be a big game," wide receiver Mike Thomas said. "We can't think of the big things. We just have to get back to playing football."

Said cornerback Antoine Cason: "We're all focusing on Arizona State."

2 UCLA loses its final two games. Once the Pac-10's leader, UCLA has fallen into the also-ran category. Injuries haven't helped. Tailback Kahlil Bell and quarterbacks Pat Cowan and Ben Olson are out, leaving relative unknowns — players such as Osaar Rasshan or Chane Moline — to carry the load. The Bruins (5-5) need to defeat either Oregon or USC in their final two games to become bowl eligible, or could rocket up the Pac-10 standings by winning both. If UCLA is swept, the Bruins, as the conference's other bubble team, will spend the holidays at home, leaving the final two spots for Cal and Arizona. A UCLA split wouldn't end the Wildcats' hopes entirely, but a bowl committee would have to choose Arizona over the Bruins. In the event of a UCLA split, Arizona's postseason chances could be further aided by Stanford upsetting Cal on Dec. 1, leaving the Wildcats and Golden Bears with six wins apiece.

3 The Las Vegas Bowl takes a chance — or the Armed Forces Bowl takes No. 6. The Pac-10's first four bowl slots will likely be filled by ASU, Oregon, USC and Oregon State when bids are handed out in two weeks.

Arizona could jump to as high as the No. 5 slot and earn a berth in the Las Vegas Bowl if UCLA loses twice or splits its remaining two games.

Surely, a bowl committee — especially one like Las Vegas, which showed great interest in the UA a year ago — would consider taking a team with four consecutive conference wins over one that has been struggling (Cal) or has lost most of its impact players (UCLA). If not, the Armed Forces Bowl in Fort Worth, Texas, would possibly step up.

The key for Arizona is that only six conference teams qualify for bowl games — that way, nobody can be left at home.