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Catastrophic fire danger still looms

With winter weather the wild card, it's too soon to say if Arizona's two-year streak of disastrous wildfires will continue into 2004. But fire experts know one thing for sure: The buildup of fuels in the state's forests will make catastrophic blazes a distinct possibility for years - maybe decades - to come. "We're sitting in a situation which is not going to improve in the long term," said Chuck Maxwell, predictive services group leader for the government's wildfire coordination center in Albuquerque. "It's just a matter of year-to-year, which will be the worst." Wildfires start throughout the year in Arizona. But the biggest, most dangerous blazes are concentrated in the weeks and months leading up to the monsoon, which typically arrives in Tucson about July 4. Between now and then, valley rain and mountain snow will moisten fuels. The nature of that precipitation is the critical unknown in forecasting the severity of the next fire season. However, a few storms won't undo a multiyear drought, reverse decades of fire suppression or bring back to life trees that insects have killed. Recent models from the federal Climate Prediction Center say the odds slightly favor drier-than-normal weather in Arizona from January to April. Southeast Arizona needs 6 to 9 inches of rain in the next three months to end the drought, but the chances of that happening are less than 1 in 6, according to a new report from the University of Arizona's Climate Assessment for the Southwest. Long-term forecasts are especially tough right now because there is neither an El Niño nor a La Niña pattern in place, said Pat Holbrook, a National Weather Service meteorologist. Even wet weather is a mixed blessing for wildfires. Rain at lower elevations spurs the growth of grasses and shrubs, which cure quickly beneath the Arizona sun and offer a fresh source of fuel for fires during subsequent dry spells. * Contact reporter Mitch Tobin at 573-4185 or mtobin@azstarnet.com.