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Fires' cost, extent, acreage predicted

Firefighters have an 80 percent chance of keeping the Nuttall Complex at 50,000 acres and would contain it by July 21 after spending $11.8 million, according to a planning document obtained by the Arizona Daily Star. The document - called the "Wildland Fire Situation Analysis," or WFSA - is standard procedure in large fires that are turned over to special management teams. The land agency affected by the fire - in this case, the Coronado National Forest - looks at which of its resources are threatened, then suggests to incoming fire managers where and how the blaze might be corralled. The analysis also itemizes the $220 million worth of natural and man-made resources threatened by the blaze, including: ● $200 million for the telescope complex ● $14.7 million in mature timber ● $2 million for the communications complex atop Heliograph Peak ● $1.6 million for cabins The document outlines the current strategy of keeping the fire north of the Swift Trail and allowing it to burn down into the desert. Under the worst-case scenario, given odds of 20 percent, the fire would jump the Swift Trail and burn 60,000 acres total. An additional $13.3 million in damage might be sustained, mostly from additional homes destroyed and loss of mature timber. WFSAs, as the analyses are known, are just educated guesses. During the last year's Aspen Fire in the Santa Catalinas, the WFSA predicted the fire might burn 110,000 acres and cost $22 million to suppress. In reality, the fire charred 84,750 acres and cost $16.3 million.