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From Chase Budinger's perspective, the Arizona Wildcats' Pac-10 prospects have never changed this season.

Not when Lute Olson retired suddenly in October. Not when expected upper-tier teams such as USC and Washington struggled. Not when expected lower-tier teams such as Stanford and California rolled off good starts under new coaches.

"I always knew we had a good team coming into this year," Budinger said. "Even when Coach O's retirement happened, a lot of people were doubting us. But I still knew we had a very strong team, a very solid team. I always felt we could win the Pac-10."

The Wildcats were picked from fourth to sixth in most preseason projections, coming in at fourth in the official Pac-10 poll of media members who regularly cover the league.

That didn't deter Budinger and his teammates, either.

"We think we can win the Pac-10. We don't listen to people like you guys," Budinger said, laughing, when addressing the media this week. "We just focus on team. We know what we have and what we need to do."

Though the Wildcats have struggled when one of their top three players is off, hurt or in foul trouble, forward Jamelle Horne is one of the Wildcats' increasingly confident role players.

"Everyone in the locker room is serious about this Pac-10, because there are a lot of doubters, and there have been since the beginning of the season," Horne said. "We're playing with a lot more energy. Arizona's back."

No doubt the Wildcats have exceeded expectations so far, but so have Stanford and Cal, their two opponents this weekend. Cal snagged former Stanford coach Mike Montgomery, who has led the Bears to an 11-2 start, while the undefeated Cardinal has been energized under former Duke associate head coach Johnny Dawkins.

UA interim head coach Russ Pennell, a longtime Pac-10 observer between working as an ASU assistant coach and as an ASU radio analyst, said the league is better than expected this season, even after losing 12 NBA draft picks.

Both Pennell and Montgomery say it could be a closer race, too.

"I think there's a bunch of us probably that would have the same aspirations or the same thought process as to where we can finish," Montgomery said Tuesday at his weekly news conference. "With as much talent as was lost in the league last year, including here, you don't know where it's going to shake. The teams that have legitimate big-time talent coming back from last year — Arizona State, Arizona, UCLA, those people — they're probably a little more confident.''

Pennell says the coaching changes at both Bay Area schools have made a major impact. He'll get to see one of them first-hand tonight at Cal's Haas Pavilion.

"One thing about Mike Montgomery — he's very thorough in his execution," Pennell said. "He's not going to confuse you with a lot of different stuff, but what they do is spot-on good. That's the sign of being a great coach. Basically, what he's saying is, 'Here it is — this is what we do. Now you figure out how to stop it.' "

A team-by-team look at the league, in the order of finish predicted in the Pac-10 media poll:

1. UCLA

Record (RPI, Sagarin): 10-2 (50, 31)

Coach: Ben Howland (sixth year)

Quality wins: Miami (Ohio)

Bad losses: None

Surprises: Michael Roll has emerged as a viable shooter the past four games; he's hitting 58.7 percent overall from three-point range.

Disappointments: Early struggles; free-throw shooting (64.5); field goal percentage defense (42.5).

Key number: 19.3 — average scoring margin

2. ASU

Record (RPI, Sagarin): 11-1 (44, 10)

Coach: Herb Sendek (third year)

Quality wins: BYU

Bad losses: None

Surprises: Rihards Kuksiks is averaging 2.9 three-pointers at a 52.2 percent rate, taking some heat off James Harden.

Disappointments: Close calls that shouldn't have been: One-point win vs. BYU in Glendale; OT vs. IUPUI in Phoenix

Key number: 23.8 — Harden's scoring average

3. USC

Record (RPI, Sagarin): 9-3 (92, 63)

Coach: Tim Floyd (fourth year)

Quality wins: None

Bad losses: Seton Hall

Surprises: Taj Gibson is one of three most dominant big men in Pac-10 along with UA's Jordan Hill and Washington's Jon Brockman.

Disappointments: DeMar DeRozan, only starter to live up to near-Mayo-esque hype. He has missed all 12 three-pointers he's tried.

Key number: 16.8 — average turnovers per game.

4. Arizona

Record (RPI, Sagarin): 9-3 (71, 49)

Coach: Russ Pennell (interim)

Quality wins: Gonzaga, Kansas

Bad losses: None

Surprises: Hill has shown increasingly varied offensive skill-set; Kyle Fogg has become much-needed trustworthy role player.

Disappointments: Forward Fendi Onobun has fallen from starter to seldom-used reserve.

Key number: 44.4 — Average opponent three-point percentage in Arizona losses.

5. Washington

Record (RPI, Sagarin): 9-3 (56, 55)

Coach: Lorenzo Romar (seventh year)

Quality wins: Oklahoma State

Bad losses: Portland

Surprises: Combo guard Isaiah Thomas could be Pac-10's best freshman so far.

Disappointments: Veteran team failed to distinguish itself in Kansas City tournament against Kansas and Florida

Key number: 31.7 — Washington's three-point percentage

6. Washington State

Record (RPI, Sagarin): 9-3 (118, 69)

Coach: Tony Bennett (third year)

Quality wins: None

Bad losses: None

Surprises: Freshman Klay Thompson's polished production

Disappointments: No big wins on tough schedule; guard Taylor Rochestie's 35.3 percent field goal shooting.

Key number: 49.3 — Average number of points allowed

7. Oregon

Record (RPI, Sagarin): 11-2 (105, 116)

Coach: Ernie Kent (12th year)

Quality wins: None

Bad losses: Oakland, San Diego

Surprises: Approval granted for new $227 million arena

Disappointments: Too many freshmen; too many mistakes

Key number: minus-4.7 — Average rebounding margin

8. California

Record (RPI, Sagarin): 11-2 (26, 27)

Coach: Mike Montgomery (first year)

Quality wins: UNLV, Utah

Bad losses: None

Surprises: Jerome Randle's 19.5 average points and 56.1 percent three-point shooting; Theo Robertson's 61.5 percent long-range shooting.

Disappointments: Lack of quality inside help and overall lack of depth.

Key number: 50.6 — Cal's three-point shooting percentage

9. Stanford

Record (RPI, Sagarin): 10-0 (13, 29)

Coach: Johnny Dawkins (first year)

Quality wins: Northwestern

Bad losses: None

Surprises: Center Josh Owens has become a service-able big man; scoring of Anthony Goods (19.0).

Disappointments: Weak schedule makes it hard to assess how good the Cardinal will be.

Key number: 79.2 — Stanford's scoring offense

10. Oregon State

Record (RPI, Sagarin): 5-5 (313, 211)

Coach: Craig Robinson (first year)

Quality wins: None

Bad losses: Howard, Nevada, Yale, Montana State.

Surprises: Guard Calvin Haynes is averaging 18.8 points on 64.1 percent shooting in four games since becoming eligible earlier this month.

Disappointments: Turnovers (16.1) and lack of interior effectiveness.

Key number: 302 — OSU's strength of schedule so far.