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The figure hangs over half the Pac-10 like a pall — no team in the history of the conference has made the NCAA tournament without a winning conference record.

With three teams sitting at .500 in the Pac-10 — the Arizona Wildcats, Arizona State and USC — and Cal and Oregon each at 6-7, the scramble to reach nine wins will be the story line for the rest of the season. And that doesn't include Washington, a long shot at 5-8 in conference play.

"It seems like there's going to be a bunch of us that could be there, potentially, at 9-9, in the best conference in the country," Oregon coach Ernie Kent said.

Then again, Kent said, "I don't want to set my sights on 9-9."

He might want to. No Pac-10 team has gone 9-9 and made the Big Dance, but this isn't any ordinary year.

"This year, we may see that happen," Washington coach Lorenzo Romar said.

UCLA, Stanford and Washington State seem to be locks for the NCAA tournament — all three have won at least 20 games, with the Bruins and Cardinal each having 10 conference victories now. UCLA, with four home games remaining, is a contender for a top seed.

Middle-of-the-pack conference teams benefit from the strength of schedule afforded by the best three teams — but they have good résumés of their own, too. Arizona, ASU, USC and Oregon have all been ranked in The Associated Press Top 25 this year.

"When you're playing 12, and in some cases 14, games against teams that were ranked from December on, it tells you that, night in and night out, you're playing against great teams," USC coach Tim Floyd said.

Arizona has played the best nonconference schedule of the bunch, defeating top-10 teams Texas A&M and Washington State, and losing close games at then No. 4 Kansas and against No. 7 Stanford.

UA interim head coach Kevin O'Neill said he would be "shocked" if 9-9 didn't get a team into the tournament, especially his own. The Wildcats are ranked No. 17 in the Ratings Percentage Index.

Last week, Arizona guard Jawann McClellan said the team figured an 8-10 conference record would still be enough to qualify for the Big Dance.

"I think we have a different résumé," O'Neill said Tuesday. "I'm not trying to be a jerk or anything. But if you had to play in this league every day, 9-9 means you're having a heck of a year, and you can win a game in the NCAA tournament."

Home teams in the Pac-10 now have a losing record, winning 31 of 63 conference games.

"It takes about 90 percent of your teams being capable of going on the road and winning games," Floyd said. "And I don't think we're seeing that in any other league."

Coaches assume at least six teams will make the NCAA tournament. To reach that number, the five teams hovering around .500 — Arizona, ASU, USC, Cal and Oregon — would have to be whittled to three.