Independents comprise large proportion of newly registered voters

PHOENIX - The vast majority of new Arizona voters want nothing to do with political parties. More than two thirds of the net increase in registration since the 2000 presidential has been among those who have chosen not to align themselves with the Republican, Democratic or Libertarian parties. Registration did increase for all three - but nowhere near as fast as the unaffiliated. That results in one out of every four registered voters has chosen to be independent, up from one out of six four years ago. And that may not be the end: State Democratic Party Chairman Jim Pederson said he expects the trend to continue, with independents making up a third of the electorate before finally leveling off. Both Pederson and Bob Fannin, his Republican counterpart, said they were pleased with their gains since 2000. Republicans now number 1,055,252, up 12 percent in four years; Democrats gained 10 percent to put their current figures at 914,264. But both acknowledged that the sharp increase in independents - from 382,068 four years ago to 655,584 now - presents a challenge for the parties to identify who they should target in get-out-the-vote campaigns. That is proving crucial in the last week before the election: A new statewide poll shows Bush holding just a 5 point lead over John Kerry in Arizona, with 10 percent saying they still have no opinion. (See related story) "That's a challenge for us, as I'm sure as it would be for the Republicans," said Pederson. He said party workers call many people who register as independents "to kind of get an idea of which way they sway on issues because normally you can tell what their candidate choices are going to be." For example, he said, those called are asked if they are satisfied with where the country is headed, whether they have concerns about health care and whether they are happy with schools. Based on that, Pederson said, the party has identified about 90,000 independents who he believes would be likely to vote for Democrats - if they get to the polls. The Republicans make similar calls, but with more specific questions about whether the person prefers Kerry or Bush. Here, too, the goal is to get those apparent Bush supporters to vote, with Fannin claiming that three out of every four of those questioned leaning towards voting to reelect the president. So why are an ever-increasing percentage of Arizonans choosing not to affiliate? "I wish I really had the answer to that," said Secretary of State Jan Brewer, herself a lifelong Republican. "I don't know if these people believe that their parties have got up and left them," she said. Brewer said it may be "they've got an independent streak that they're going to exhibit." Fannin suggested the large in-migration of voters from elsewhere may play a role. "A lot of newcomers may not have been here long enough to figure out which party they want to join," he said. He said it also may be political alienation. "Some people are not happy with the ways the campaigns have been conducted," Fannin explained. "This bashing back and forth has turned some people off." Brewer said she believes the increased registration overall may reflect the high level of interest in the presidential race. But he acknowledged the sharp increase in voter registration may not translate into a similar hike in the number of people actually casting ballots, either early or on election day.