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Students hope to 'swing' Arizona

UA law student Nathan Benedict moved to Tucson in 2002. But only last month did he switch his voter registration to Arizona from his native California, a move made with the Nov. 2 presidential election in mind. "It's political geography," said Benedict, 24, who plans to vote for John Kerry. "You want to vote somewhere where it's going to be close and your vote might make a difference, rather than where it's just going to add to a blowout." With Arizona polls showing President Bush holding a slim lead over Democrat Kerry, students from entrenched "red" and "blue" states may well flock to the polls in Arizona in hopes their candidate will win the state's 10 electoral votes. To be sure, odds remain small that out-of-state students at the University of Arizona could swing the election, even if all 8,000 of them voted. By comparison, more than 1.5 million Arizonans voted in the last presidential election, and Bush won the state by almost 100,000 votes. Still, with the 2000 race seeing two states decided by fewer than 1,000 votes combined - Florida for Bush, New Mexico for Al Gore - campus political organizers are not discounting the potential impact of student voters, especially those from other states. Danielle Roberts, 20, head of the College Republicans at the University of Arizona, said her group has prepared since February for the election. Club members have registered students from a tent on the campus mall and will continue signing up voters until Oct. 4, the last day to register, she said. "We don't seek out out-of-state students, but we get really excited when we do find one, especially from California," Roberts said. During the last academic year, more than 3,000 out-of-state students at the UA hailed from California, followed by nearly 500 from Illinois and more than 450 from Texas. In all, almost 75 percent of out-of-state students came from states that Gore carried in the last election - a source of votes that the UA's Young Democrats hope to tap. Alicia Cybulski, 20, the group's president, said the club will staff a voter registration tent on the mall, too, as well as knock on doors at dormitories and student apartment complexes. "We just target any student and try to get them to register," including those from Arizona, Cybulski said. She said students who can cast ballots in Tucson are more likely to vote than those who have to request an absentee ballot from their home counties. Recent statewide polls show Bush holding a 4- or 5-point lead, noted Margaret Kenski, head of Arizona Opinion, a Tucson-based polling firm. While that margin has worried some Kerry supporters, it has not given much comfort to Roberts, who said she still expects a close race in Arizona. Cybulski agreed. "I still consider it a swing state, especially if the student vote gets out."