CORT Warehouse Supervisor General CORT WAREHOUSE/DRIVER Health Care Rio Salado College PA's/Online Instructors Education Assessment Technology, Inc Social Studies Content Writer Construction Komatsu Equipment Co Mechanic NationNo voter roll surge seen in HispanicsAP survey that included Tucson gauges effect of pro-migrant rallies
the associated press
Tucson, Arizona | Published: 09.05.2006
Immigration protests that brought hundreds of thousands of marchers into the nation's streets last spring promised a potent political legacy — a surge of new Hispanic voters.
"Today we march; tomorrow we vote," they vowed.
But an Associated Press review of voter-registration figures from urban areas — including Tucson and Phoenix — that saw large rallies shows no sign of a historic new voter boom that could sway elections.
Even in Los Angeles, where a 500,000-strong protest in March foreshadowed demonstrations across the United States, an increase in new registrations before the June primary was more trickle than torrent in a county of nearly 4 million voters.
Protest organizers — principally unions, Hispanic advocacy groups and the Catholic Church — acknowledge that it has been hard to translate street activism into ballot box clout, although they say their goal of 1 million new voters by 2008 is reachable.
It's impossible to count exactly how many new registrants were inspired by the new movement, because counties typically don't ask about race or ethnicity. But while new registrations were higher this year than last — not surprising since Democrats and Republicans are struggling for control of Congress — the numbers are well below those of 2004 and don't indicate the watershed awakening that advocates had envisioned.
"I was anticipating a huge jump in registration — I didn't see it," said Jess Cervantes, a veteran California political operative whose company analyzes Hispanic voting trends. "When you have an emotional response, it takes time to evolve."
The emotional response was a reaction to federal legislation that would have overhauled current immigration policies, including the criminalization of the estimated 11 million immigrants who are here illegally. While that legislation is effectively dead this year, immigration remains a campaign issue.
And Hispanic voters remain a pivotal voting bloc, especially with their numbers projected to grow significantly in the coming decades. Both political parties would like to capture the Hispanic vote in the same way Democrats have maintained overwhelming support among black voters.
Hispanics have long voted in numbers far below their share of the population. A study by the Pew Hispanic Center found that while Hispanics accounted for half the nation's population growth between the 2000 and 2004 elections, they represented only one-tenth of the increase in votes cast.
A lack of political experience helps explain why the flow of new registrations has been halting. Some activists acknowledge that their groups have yet to master the nuances of voter-registration drives — a typically face-to-face task more complex than mobilizing a march. Others complain that political parties with the most to gain haven't funded registration efforts.
"Until the money is spent, 'Today we march; tomorrow we vote' will always just be a slogan," said Nativo Lopez, president of the California-based Mexican-American Political Association. "A million new registrations would cost about $10 million. Is anybody willing to pay that? I haven't seen it."
What's more, no galvanizing leader of the immigrant-rights movement has emerged, and the largest pool of potential voters — young people — tends to be the hardest to reach.
The AP reviewed new registration numbers in metropolitan areas over several years. The areas included Los Angeles, San Francisco and San Jose, Calif.; Chicago; Phoenix and Tucson; Dallas and Houston; Atlanta; Denver; and Jacksonville and St. Petersburg, Fla. The time frames included both January-through-July periods dating to 2004, as well as periods before statewide elections, when registration efforts are most intense.
The data provide a wide-angle look at new registrations, but they do have limitations. Any significant shift in registrations overall would stand out, but voters are not specifically identified by race or ethnicity. As a result, an increase in new registrations in Los Angeles County in the 100 days before June's primary compared with the months before two prior statewide elections cannot be attributed exclusively to new Hispanic voters, despite extensive registration efforts there.
Gains in new registrations were the highest in 2004, when political parties spent lavishly to enroll new voters ahead of the presidential election.
New voter registrations increased in virtually every city from 2005 to 2006, but the 2006 numbers were below the 2004 numbers in every city, often significantly.
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