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Arizona Daily Star
Tucson, Arizona | Published: 10.13.2008
The economic downturn could slow the growth in emissions of climate-heating greenhouse gases or lower them outright, Tucson city officials say.
While they don't want to see the economy slump further, they say a slowdown would give them breathing room to deal with a greenhouse-gas problem that has increased faster here than nationally.
The economic crunch won't stop a new effort by city officials to try to get a plan approved by late next year to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions to forestall global warming and other forms of climate change.
But it could postpone or scale back some of the costlier regulations that might be considered, they say.
Regardless of the economy, however, city officials say they don't expect Tucson to meet the ambitious timetable that the city agreed to back in 2006 when it signed the national Mayors' Climate Protection Agreement.
Nearly 900 cities signed that agreement, which would reduce emissions to 7 percent below 1990 levels by 2012.
Here are some questions and answers about Tucson's climate protection efforts:
Q. How much have greenhouse-gas emissions risen in the Tucson area?
A. Thirty-four percent within the city limits and 46 percent in all of urbanized eastern Pima County from 1990 to 2006, says a new study from the Pima Association of Governments. That compares to 14 percent nationwide in the same period.
Q. Why the big difference?
A. Our population grew faster, 32 percent in Tucson and 46 percent in eastern Pima County, from 1990 to 2006. Nationally, population rose 16.9 percent during that period. More people means more cars, and more electricity and other energy use in buildings — the biggest single sources of greenhouse-gas emissions.
"Most growth is driven by fossil-fuel-energy consumption," said David Schaller, an administrator for the city of Tucson's Office of Conservation and Sustainable Development.
Q. Why does this matter?
A. The International Panel on Climate Change has repeatedly linked emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane to warming temperatures worldwide — those that already have occurred over the past two decades and those expected to occur over the next century.
Although some scientists and outside critics still say these links are unproved, the general scientific consensus is that, in the West, for instance, a continued greenhouse-gas buildup will mean warmer and drier weather. That in turn will leave less water for the Colorado River and other sources supplying Arizona and other Western states.
Q. So are the city officials rooting for a bad recession?
A. No, say Schaller and Leslie Liberti, director of the city's Office of Conservation and Sustainable Development. But Schaller said a recession would give officials time to come up with fresh ideas to deal with climate change, by allowing emission levels to possibly stabilize.
"It gives us a chance to rethink how we move around and use electricity," Schaller said. "There's a rare opportunity to reimagine how we might want to re-create our economy and infrastructure. Instead of using 18th-century technology like coal, we could use 21st-century technologies" such as renewable solar and wind energies.
Q. What will the city do next about climate change?
A. The City Council passed a measure last week setting up a 13-member Climate Change Committee. The members, now being appointed, will represent 13 areas of expertise, including sustainable land use and design, urban green space, low-income representation, small and/or local business, neighborhood advocacy and work-force advocacy and training.
They're supposed to come up with a greenhouse-gas reduction plan by the end of 2009.
Q. Will the plan be heavy on regulation, or heavier on incentives and voluntary measures to try to persuade people to produce less greenhouse gases?
A. Some regulatory measures may have to be put off due to the economic slump, Liberti said. Whether they're regulations or voluntary steps, however, officials say they will try hard to come up with ideas that don't cost people money, or that maybe even save money.
Q. Such as?
A. Ways to encourage "green" building. Pima County, for instance, is just starting construction on a new employment center that will help people get job training, and it's planned to meet standards set by the U.S. Green Building Council.
The $1.1 million bid on the South Tucson building that was accepted was less than the county had budgeted for, said Phil Swaim, an architect on that project who is under consideration for Climate Change Committee membership.
Plus, energy savings can help the economy in the long run, Swaim said, adding, "Sometimes, you wonder if you can afford not to do it."
Q. What about incentives to encourage people to use renewable energy or conserve electricity?
A. Those could get hindered by city-budget problems during a downturn, said University of Arizona economist Pat Patton, who is also being considered for a Climate Change Committee seat.
Q. Are there any laws the city could pass to improve energy efficiency?
A. The city of Berkeley, Calif., recently adopted a law that requires people who sell their homes to take 10 steps to upgrade the energy -efficiency.
Tucson's Schaller found that these steps cost about $1,312 when he priced them locally. But they do pay themselves back over time in lower energy bills, officials say, although they don't know how long. The measures include installing ceiling insulation, sealing furnace duct leaks, insulating water heaters and insulating hot water pipes.
Q. What about transportation?
A. Encouraging more car-pooling can save people gasoline expenses, Liberti said. Planning future developments closer to existing jobs saves governments lots of road-building, said Swaim, adding, "To extend roads to new areas is hugely expensive."
Q. When gas prices went up, many people drove less and some switched to mass transit. Now that gas prices are collapsing with the economy, what will happen to this newfound energy-consciousness?
A. If energy prices drop significantly, the city will have a very challenging task meeting greenhouse-gas reduction targets, Patton said.
"People's behavior changes in response to market forces, not out of pleas for cooperation from government agencies," he said.
Q. How will the business community respond to the city's greenhouse-gas reduction push?
A. Michael Guymon, director of the business-oriented Metropolitan Pima Alliance, said he can understand why people might react negatively to government-imposed solutions to climate issues during a downturn. But "that sort of begs the question of when is a good time to talk about this stuff," said Guymon, who also chairs the region's Metropolitan Energy Commission.
He said he can't take stands on regulatory measures without knowing what they are, but that he has no problem with entering a broad discussion over reducing greenhouse gases.
Q. What about the Chamber of Commerce?
A: The Tucson Metropolitan Chamber of Commerce would oppose any regulations for which the city doesn't provide money to people to meet them, said Robert Medler, the group's manager of government affairs.
"I'd rather see an incentive of some sort," Medler said. "The city is there, but they don't lead by example."
For instance, he said, the city should look at programs in which city or utility officials come to people's homes to give them energy-efficient light bulbs.
Mandating such steps without help will simply raise housing costs again, he said.
● Contact reporter Tony Davis at 806-7746 or tdavis@azstarnet.com.
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