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PHOENIX — A new statewide poll indicates more Arizonans believe Barack Obama will be the next president than think John McCain will wind up in the White House, even if he is the hometown favorite.

Pollster Bruce Merrill said the telephone survey of 552 registered voters found Arizona voters favor McCain over either Hillary Clinton or Obama, although Obama would be more of a challenge. Merrill found McCain leads Obama by 11 points, while he has a 24-point edge over Clinton, among those who have a favorite.

But Merrill also found that 44 percent of those asked believe Obama would win a nationwide contest, versus 38 percent who think McCain will be president.

They believe McCain would win, however, if he faces Clinton.

"I think a lot of people would basically say, 'I'm going to support him because he's an Arizonan, I'm an Arizonan, this is Arizona,' but still think on a national level that Obama has the best chance to win," Merrill said, explaining the seeming disconnect between the two findings.

The survey also found 90 percent of those questioned were aware of a New York Times story alleging improper contacts involving McCain, a television chain owner and his lobbyist.

But Merrill found most Arizonans give the report little credence. Nearly 60 percent said the report was not at all believable, versus just 6 percent who found it very believable and 27 percent who said it is somewhat believable.

"The only people who really believed it was the hard-core Democrats," he said.

The survey, conducted earlier this month, has a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points.