Sat, Jul 04, 2009

Tucson Region

Dems take huge edge in fundraising

National filings show a disparity of 14-1; race in Southern Ariz. could be affected
By Daniel Scarpinato
arizona daily star
Tucson, Arizona | Published: 10.01.2007
With money the mother's milk of politics, Republicans are heading into a major election cycle looking malnourished.
The latest campaign filings indicate national Democrats are outpacing Republicans in the money race for next year's congressional contests by a nearly 14-1 margin, an issue that could plague the GOP in three emerging political fights in Arizona.
How big is the fundraising gap?
At the end of August, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee reported having $22.1 million on hand, a major advantage over the $1.6 million held by the National Republican Congressional Committee.
While Republicans are downplaying the numbers, Democrats say it's an early indication their incumbents enter next year's races with an advantage.
In fact, even the Arizona Democratic Party is out-raising its Republican counterpart despite the GOP's registration advantage here.
Arizona Democrats have raised $568,651 in individual contributions to the Republicans' $331,699 — paving the path for state Democrats to out-raise the GOP in individual contributions for the third election cycle in a row.
The influence of party money is a significant factor in congressional bids, and both parties are counting on national money funneling into three Arizona races next year — including the 8th District, the Southern Arizona race that will pit freshman Democratic Rep. Gabrielle Giffords against a Republican challenger. State Senate President Tim Bee has formed an exploratory committee to consider running against Giffords.
Republicans have stressed that Bee would receive substantial support from the national level if he ran. That's help Bee may need if he remains in the Legislature while running and is barred against fundraising from lobbyists.
But if national fundraising doesn't pick up, Southern Arizona Republicans could find themselves picking up the slack, strategists and party officials say.
"It would cause me to have some consternation if I were a Republican," said Bruce Merrill, a political scientist and independent pollster with Arizona State University. "I'd be asking the question: 'What does this say about the organizational strength of the two parties?' "
If Bee jumps in, he could suffer most from the GOP's empty bank accounts.
Merrill said Republicans may have a better shot at winning back a Phoenix-area seat held by freshman Harry Mitchell. There, Republicans have a stronger party registration advantage than in the 8th District. And an open seat in the 1st District, currently held by embattled Republican Rick Renzi, could also draw resources.
Last year, the 8th District was a priority for both national committees, each dropping more than $300,000 supporting or attacking candidates.
Money is often used for polling, phone blasts and media blitzes, which can run up to seven figures during the height of the campaign season.
"Tim's going to raise the lion's share of the money," says Bruce Ash, the state's national GOP committeeman. "This is a very, very important election. He's going to have a lot of my dough."
Bee's exploratory campaign manager, Meg Econ, wouldn't comment on how much he has raised but said the amount being raised nationally is a factor as Bee explores viability.
As of the last reporting cycle, Giffords had already raised nearly $1 million — a figure that made her fifth-highest freshman fundraiser in the U.S. House. She also raised more than any Republican.
And the Democrats' fundraising strengths can also be seen in presidential donations.
Part of the Republicans' lack of resources is the result of starting the year $16 million in debt. And as a minority party this year, with an unpopular president, polling shows the public at large is more trusting of Democrats to handle the country's top issues.
"There's a clear advantage for us," says Emily Bittner, spokeswoman for the Arizona Democratic Party. "I think people have to start changing their preconceived notion that Arizona is a Republican state."
But Republicans say fundraising will pick up once they have a presidential nominee to excite the base, and point to the success of the Republican National Committee, another fundraising and strategy machine, which has out-raised its Democratic counterpart.
"Democrats came off a very successful election cycle that we would argue was not an endorsement of their agenda but an expression of frustration with Republicans in the last Congress," said Ken Spain, NRCC spokesman. "We definitely believe we can compete in a state like Arizona, especially in a presidential election where turnout will be high."
On StarNet: Read reporter Daniel Scarpinato's political blog, "Under the Copper Dome" at aztarnet.com/politics.
● Contact reporter Daniel Scarpinato at 307-4339 or dscarpinato@azstarnet.com.