Sat, Nov 22, 2008
 Nobel prize winner Jonathan Overpeck, director Institute for the Study of Planet Earth and professor of geosciences at the Univerity of Arizonain a 2002 file photo. ARIZONA DAILY STAR
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Yavapai College Teachers General Prestige Maintenance USA Area Manager Dental Apache Dental Porcelain Techs Health Care Freedom Manor Caregivers Health Care Carondelet Foothills Surgery Pre-Op Nurse Health Care SOUTHERN ARIZONA ENDODONTICS I NSURANCE PROCESSOR General GROUNDS CONTROL LANDCAPE FOREMAN & LABORERS Hourly UpdateMore research on climate change and water supplies needed, UA climate scientist tells CongressArizona Daily Star
Tucson, Arizona | Published: 05.14.2008
The country’s biggest potential water problem “is what we don’t know” about water and climate change, the University of Arizona’s Nobel Prize-winning climate scientist testified in Congress today.
“We don’t know what lies underground . . . We don’t know how climate change will affect water resources,” said Prof. Jonathan Overpeck, director of the University of Arizona’s Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, in pushing hard for more federal support of research on the effects of climate change on water supplies and on possible solutions.
In his first congressional appearance, Overpeck spoke before the House Science and Technology Committee. The committee held a hearing on water supply challenges for the 21st century. Overpeck pounded home what he saw as the lack of knowledge to answer basic questions about water supplies and the threats from climate change to them.
“We don’t know how the water supply will change in the future or how demand from the atmosphere will change for water in the future,” Overpeck said. “Temperature certainly has a major effect on water supply. As temperatures goes up, there is an increase in the amount of moisture that the atmosphere can hold, so there will be more demand. It will get the water from soil, forests, agriculture, from plants, it will get them from reservoirs, from any open source of water.
“These temperatures changes that are coming are huge, will demand a lot of water, and will make the droughts of the past look pale because they will be so much hotter.”
The scientist said that “toilet to tap”, the treatment of wastewater for drinking, represents a solution “down the road” to the country’s water problems.
“We’re having to use this water that has been used before and we’re having to do that more and more. We will use it more in the future. We have to do research on that in the future,” Overpeck said.
He testified as his own future at the UA remains unclear. He has been one of two finalists for the position of director of the larger Gaylord Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies at the University of Wisconsin and Madison. He has been interviewed for the job and is weighing a decision on whether to stay or leave UA. His decision is expected this week, said his wife, Julia Cole, a UA associate professor of geosciences.
He was a co-author of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's report linking atmospheric greenhouse gas increases to human activity.
In his written testimony, Overpeck noted that droughts of the type now occurring in the Southwest and around the country are still modest compared to the more severe droughts that took place before the 20th century, including “megadroughts” that lasted many decades during medieval droughts in the West.
From computer models, it’s known that if such megadroughts occurred in the future, “it is safe to say that the water supply infrastructure in many parts of the country (including the West) would be overwhelmed,” he said.
“What is most disturbing about the natural droughts of the past is that we are not sure what caused them, nor are we confident that we can predict them. Thus, it is difficult for climate scientists to say how long the current droughts will last, or whether they will intensify,” he said. “What climate scientists can say is that it would be foolish to assume that droughts much longer -- and more severe -- than those of the last 100 years won’t happen again.”
In his written testimony, he endorsed the following steps to try to ease or better understand future effects of global warming on water supplies:
— An accelerated research program to understand climate-related vulnerabilities in our water supply. This would include improving computer models used to predict river flow, incorporating realistic projections of climate change into models to manage rivers and understanding how much water can be diverted safely from agriculture to support population growth in areas with potential water limits.
— More research to understand variations in climate and the processes of climate change and how to predict them. One example is the lack of understanding how the Southwest’s monsoon system works, and whether global warming and climate change will raise or lower monsoon rainfall.
— Set up a national climate service to support local and regional officials in dealing with water supply reductions due to climate change.
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