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PHOENIX — A successful end to Arizonan John McCain’s run for the presidency would put his U.S. Senate seat up for grabs, with Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano getting the potentially delicate job of picking a temporary replacement.

McCain, who has effectively sealed the Republican nomination, is now just over three years into his fourth six-year Senate term representing his adoptive state.

Under state law, Napolitano would appoint a replacement senator to serve until “the next general election.” If McCain resigns after a November win, Napolitano’s pick would serve through 2010.

Also by law, Napolitano’s pick would have to be a Republican because that’s McCain’s party. Napolitano is regarded as a likely U.S. Senate candidate in 2010. That’s when both her current term and McCain’s end.

Because of that, “I’m assuming that only somebody who would not run (in 2010) would have any chance of getting appointed,” said Lisa Hauser, a Republican election attorney.

Andy Gordon, a Democratic Party activist and attorney for Napolitano’s last campaign, said he’d be surprised if Napolitano tried to extract a commitment that her pick wouldn’t run in 2010. The Republican Party would sort that out in the 2010 primary, he said.

“It’s more important to get someone in there she can work with,” Gordon said, adding that it wouldn’t likely be a “rock-ribbed conservative.”

There’s been some speculation in Arizona political circles that McCain would resign before the election for various reasons, possibly early enough so that the resulting vacancy would go on the ballot this November.

However, McCain’s Senate spokeswoman said the speculation is unfounded. “I can confidently tell you that he does not plan to resign” unless elected president, Melissa Sheffield said from Washington.

McCain said Thursday that other members of the state’s congressional delegation may be eager to see an open Senate seat but that he doesn’t intend to leave the Senate and doesn’t see why he would. Potential Senate candidates on the Republican side in 2010 start with current U.S. Reps. Jeff Flake, Trent Franks and John Shadegg.

Besides Napolitano, top-tier Democrats regarded as potential Senate candidates include Attorney General Terry Goddard and developer Jim Pederson. A former state party chairman, Pederson unsuccessfully challenged Republican U.S. Sen. Jon Kyl in 2006.

However, Goddard and Peterson also are regarded as potential candidates for governor in 2010, when both Goddard and Napolitano cannot run again for their current offices because of term limits.

A McCain resignation early enough to trigger a 2008 vote would set off a scramble for potential candidates and also mean that Napolitano’s appointed pick would only serve about a half-year in the Senate. Napolitano herself would legally have to resign her current office to run this year, which would surrender the governorship to Secretary of State Jan Brewer, a Republican.

“If a Senate seat opens in 2008, a lot of elected officials who aspire to the Senate, including members of Congress and the governor, are going to have to make some very difficult decisions about fulfilling their current commitments and balancing against their personal ambitions,” said Lee Miller, a Republican Party activist and election attorney.

State election officials said their read of the relatively skimpy state law on filling a Senate vacancy is that normal election deadlines and timelines would apply to a vacancy created by an early McCain resignation. That means that the Senate seat would go on the 2010 ballot unless the vacancy is created before May 5, the date the state specifies what offices will be up for grabs in the fall. “All offices are set at that point,” said Elections Director Joseph Kanefield.

“It’s sort of a ’hear ye, hear ye,’ here are the offices in case you want to run,” said Kevin Tyne, deputy secretary of state.

Hauser and Gordon said they agreed with the state officials’ reading of the law and the logistical realities that make last-minute changes to ballots nearly impossible.

“They (election officials) would need at least that much time. It would have to be pretty soon,” Hauser said. “If McCain does not resign his seat early, and I cannot fathom why he would do that, it certainly is going to be the situation that somebody would be appointed to do the vacancy until the 2010 election.”

Miller said there might be leeway under state law to have what would effectively be a November 2008 “special election” on a Senate vacancy created even after May 5. He cited statutes on special primary elections and special nominating conventions.

However, “the real answer” might depend on what election officials say about time needed to collect nominating signatures and print and distribute sample, early and regular ballots, Miller said. “What the lawyers would say is legally permissible may be utterly impossible in reality.”

Shadegg’s surprise Feb. 11 announcement that he had changed his mind and wouldn’t run for re-election fed the speculation of a possible early McCain departure.

Shadegg said Feb. 11 that he wasn’t acting to position himself to fill the U.S. Senate seat as McCain pursues the White House. “There’s no hidden agenda here.”

Shadegg subsequently disclosed Thursday that he was reconsidering at the urging of GOP colleagues. By week’s end, it remained unclear how Shadegg’s yes-no-maybe stance would play out.