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Tucson, Arizona | Published: 08.28.2007
PHOENIX -- John McCain finds himself in a statistical dead heat with other presidential contenders to win the hearts -- and votes -- of Arizona Republicans.
A new statewide poll Tuesday shows the state's senior senator the preference of 24 percent of those asked within the last week. That puts him 5 points ahead of Mitt Romney, six above Rudy Giuliani and seven higher than Fred Thompson.
But the survey by KAET-TV, the Phoenix PBS affiliate, puts the difference among them in the margin of error -- meaning it remains anyone's race.
The poll also shows that McCain has generated some negative feelings among Arizona Republicans. Pollster Bruce Merrill said 16 percent said they don't like his position on issues in general. Another 13 percent said he is too wishy-washy and doesn't take strong positions, with 12 percent citing his stance on illegal immigration as the primary reason Republicans would not vote for him.
The poll comes as McCain, whose campaign fundraising has faltered, received notice Tuesday that he can get federal matching dollars for his presidential bid -- if he wants it.
McCain press aide Brooke Buchanan said papers were filed Aug. 10 with the Federal Election Commission showing that McCain had collected at least $5,000 in each of 20 different states. That is the threshold for eligibility.
But Buchanan said that does not necessarily mean McCain has given up on private financing for his race. "We have not yet made a final decision at this point,'' she said. Buchanan declined to say what factors McCain will use in deciding whether to take public financing.
McCain managed to raise about $25 million in the first half of the year but spent virtually all of that, leaving his campaign with $2 million cash on hand and $1 million in debt.
The FEC reports primary contenders can get up to $21 million in federal cash. But the trade-off is that candidates must agree to limit total spending, something that could put McCain at a disadvantage against Giuliani and Romney.
Merrill said all the GOP candidates are now spending time in other states where voters go to the polls before the Feb. 5 primary in Arizona and elsewhere. He said McCain's built-in links to Arizona should increase his showing here once he turns his attention here.
"However, he should keep in mind that ultimately the winner will be determined by the number and the quality of political ads each candidate will run and the strength and commitment of their grassroots organizations,'' he said.
Among Democrats questioned, Hillary Clinton is the choice of 28 percent, with Barack Obama and Al Gore each at 17 percent, John Edwards tallying 13 percent and Bill Richardson at 9 percent.
Merrill also found that 70 percent of the 738 voters questioned identified an issue so important to them that it would affect who they will support.
Of those, 38 percent named the war in Iraq, with 26 percent citing illegal immigration. Other issues mentioned were in the single digit range, including health care, abortion, the economy and education.
The margin of error for the entire survey is 3.6 percent, with a 4.5 percent margin for questions asked only of Republicans and 4.9 percent for questions of Democrats.
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