Hourly Update

Dance to succeed Kolbe expected to be wild affair

The jostling and elbowing is about to begin in a generational upheaval, with a flock of Democrats and Republicans expected to vie to replace retiring longtime Rep. Jim Kolbe. The key to winning Arizona's 8th Congressional District likely rests with swaying the 25 percent of voters who are registered independents. Nearly 40 percent are Republicans and almost 35 percent Democrats. Kolbe's announcement triggered instantaneous speculation over a successor, and political observers say the field will be crowded and the race hot. Several said it shapes up as a competitive, must-win event sure to draw national interest, national party backing and financial support and interest-group political action donations. "Clearly, monied interests are going to be watching this race," said Fred Solop, a Northern Arizona University political science professor and pollster. "When you have a long-term incumbent, you have a backlog of aspirants who would like to replace him in the house," said University of Arizona political scientist John Garcia. Democrats view the seat as winnable with the popular incumbent out and high voter discontent over Iraq, government competence and GOP scandals, he said. The district's 100-mile border with Mexico also provides grist for controversial local issues: border security, illegal immigration and terrorism. The 8th, with two major military installations, stretches from the GOP-dominated retirement community of Green Valley south of Tucson through the city's affluent foothills and east side through Cochise County to New Mexico. More than 15 percent of potential voters are Hispanic. Kolbe, the only openly gay Republican congressman, announced just before Thanksgiving that he would not seek re-election. A moderately conservative Republican normally in tune with Bush administration initiatives except on some social issues, Kolbe traditionally drew support from moderates in both parties while enjoying strong backing from the district's business interests. Conservative former state Rep. Randy Graf gave Kolbe a strong primary challenge in 2004, calling for a hard crackdown on illegal immigration. Arizona's border is the nation's busiest for such activity. Kolbe endorsed a mix of more border enforcement and a guest worker program. Graf effectively has kept running since 2004, with support among border-area ranchers and others irate over the continued illegal immigration and worried terrorists could cross the border too. Other possible GOP candidates include Pima County Supervisor Ray Carroll, state Rep. Steve Huffman, state Sen. Tim Bee and Mike Hellon, a former national committeeman. Carroll and Bee, a potential Arizona Senate president, have said their considering running. Veteran Republican pollster Margaret Kenski said one key to winning will be "first of all, avoiding a bloodbath in the primary." A 20 percent rural base and 5 percent voter registration edge should let Republicans keep the seat, she said. But she cautioned that the district "gave so many votes to Ross Perot. It's got a lot of independents in it... It's definitely a competitive district." As for the Democrats, state Sen. Gabrielle Giffords resigned Thursday under a state-required law to run. Former Tucson Mayor Tom Volgy, who lost to Kolbe in 1998 by the narrowest margin since the early 1980s, said he's thinking about it too. Among others mentioned: Eva Bacal, whom Kolbe defeated last year; Tim Sultan, who lost the primary to Bacal, and attorney Fred DuVal, a former aide to President Clinton and unsuccessful congressional candidate in northern Arizona. Jeff Latas, a former Air Force pilot, already has filed. "I'm going to need to weigh those tradeoffs between the burning desire to change the world and having a good life," said Volgy, a University of Arizona political scientist. Volgy forecast "an enormous fist fight" among Republicans "who are pretty well known, able to command different wings of the Republican party." Hellon is close to the structural base of the party, Huffman and Carroll are tested, election-winning veterans and Graf captures the GOP's right wing, he said. A likely Republican primary fight offsets the GOP's registration edge, Volgy added. Earl de Berge, director of the Behavior Research Center in Phoenix, said the race is "absolutely" a once-in-a-generation event. Kolbe, in dismissing Graf as a viable candidate, "may drive moderates and perhaps independents to the Democrats," he said. "The more important question is if Graf does get it (the Republican nomination), will that drive Republicans into the arms of the Democrats?" de Berge said. He said it's likely that other candidates will jump into the fray _ a belief echoed by Tucson lawyer Tom Chandler, the late Rep. Morris K. Udall's political alter ego and a key Democratic supporter and campaign operative since 1936. "I don't think I've heard all the names," Chandler said, and added that the Democrats' best bet will be a moderate with name recognition. As for money, it will take "a ton," he said. De Berge said it wouldn't be surprising to see campaign costs reach a few million dollars on each side. It will an entry price of between $1 million and $1.5 million for candidates in competitive races "just to start and be taken seriously," Solop said. "I would expect it to go even higher."