Hourly Update

Activist to explore candidacy for GOP nomination for governor

PHOENIX - Social conservative activist Len Munsil took the first steps Thursday to running for a governor, a move that could shake up the Republican primary. Munsil formed an exploratory committee, allowing him to begin raising money. In a prepared statement, Munsil also said he is stepping down as president of the Center for Arizona Policy. Pollster Bruce Merrill said Munsil, who has made a name for himself on morality issues of abortion and gay rights, could split the vote among those with a similar agenda. That is because both Don Goldwater and Jan Florez, who already are in the GOP race, both have declared themselves "pro life" candidates. That, in turn, could aid John Greene, the other high-profile Republican contender. He has charted a separate path, supporting not only the right to abortion but also equal rights for gays. "The danger for the right-wingers is they divide the vote," said Merrill, director of the media research program at Arizona State University. But Kurt Davis, a former adviser to Fife Symington, said there is no "block" vote of abortion foes, with Republicans instead deciding who to support based on "electability and likability." Davis said Munsil probably could win the primary. He said, though, Munsil's ability to unseat incumbent Janet Napolitano will depend on whether he "chooses to broaden the issues he is known for." Munsil recognizes this, saying in a statement he has not addressed other issues in the decade he headed CAP "because they are outside the mission of a pro-family organization with a clearly defined public policy agenda." But Munsil, who has refused requests for interviews, said he plans to campaign on a platform that Napolitano is out of the Arizona mainstream and "how much further to the left she will move our state if elected to a second term." John Jakubczyk, president of Arizona Right to Life, said a Munsil candidacy presents an interesting dilemma for his organization in deciding who to endorse. "The goal is, I think bigger than any one person," he said. "There has to be a candid assessment of which candidate is best situated to first of all win the primary and, secondly, pose a credible challenge to the current governor." The bottom line, Jakubczyk emphasized, is who can oust Napolitano. "Winning in November has to be the bell ringer for any decision that's made," he said. "Does the person have a credible chance to win in November against a governor who is quite savvy, a is quite adept at using the political climate to her advantage, and who has a built-in cheerleader in The Arizona Republic." Max Fose, who has done consulting for Republican candidates, also said he believes Munsil will win the GOP primary. But Fose, who worked on John McCain's 2004 presidential bid, said that would virtually ensure another term for Napolitano. He said Matt Salmon became the Republican gubernatorial nominee in 2002 by catering to conservatives within the party on issues like abortion. But Fose said that Salmon then could not broaden his appeal sufficiently to win the general election. And Munsil, said Fose, is more conservative than Salmon. Both Florez and Goldwater said Munsil's candidacy will not affect their own bids. Florez said she has the upper hand among the three because she has the broadest experience. That includes not only her time as a judge on the state Court of Appeals but also her ability to be elected county attorney as a Republican in largely Democratic Santa Cruz County. And Goldwater said he has a broader platform including a strong stand against illegal immigration and for lower taxes - issues that go beyond abortion. There also are three political novices who are seeking the GOP bid: Teresa Otteson, Gary Tupper Arthur Arvizu.