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It wasn't long ago when U.S. motorists gritted their teeth at the prospect of $2 a gallon for gas. And while it might be a welcome relief right now, most analysts say getting back to that level anytime soon is unlikely and would entail a major slowdown in the economy, if not a downright recession.

A more likely scenario, these analysts say, is that retail gasoline prices will slide to about $2.50 a gallon by winter — and then head higher again early next year.

Still, even a temporary reprieve from soaring energy prices will be a balm for consumers, especially as the economy continues to cool.

"It's not going to lead to a resurgence in spending, but it will take some of the burden off consumers," said Douglas Porter, an economist at Toronto-based investment bank BMO Nesbitt Burns.

But truckers and others who depend on diesel fuel haven't been as fortunate as their gasoline-burning brethren.

Average U.S. diesel prices are hovering above $3 a gallon, thanks to strong demand and uncertainty over supplies as refiners are required to produce lower-sulfur diesel to meet new environmental guidelines.

There is another way in which Americans could feel the sting of high energy prices in the months ahead: home-heating costs.

Heating oil prices have not fallen as sharply as gasoline in recent weeks, and they tend to rise in September anyway.

Heating oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange traded Friday at $1.99 a gallon, and any glitch in the refining sector — or a meteorological report signaling a cold winter — will be seized upon by traders as a reason to bid prices higher.

Natural gas prices, meanwhile, have mounted a huge retreat from last winter's highs thanks to surging supplies, though the cost of this mostly domestic fuel has stabilized at a level that just a few years ago would have seemed quite expensive.

Nymex natural gas futures traded around $6 per 1,000 cubic feet. That's roughly 45 percent below last year, when prices soared in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.

Of course, when it comes to home heating costs this winter, a lot will depend — as always — on the weather, which determines just how much heating oil or natural gas consumers will burn.

"What would really surprise this market is we have a good old-fashioned winter," said oil analyst Phil Flynn of Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago. "Our winter temperatures have been above average for the past few years."

A decline in gasoline prices is typical at the end of the summer, but this year's seasonal drop-off has been magnified by signs of a weakening economy, easing concerns about ethanol supplies and a sense of relief among traders that there have not been any hurricanes to disrupt, or even threaten, Gulf of Mexico energy production.

Energy Department data show U.S. gasoline supplies at almost 5 percent above year-ago levels, while demand for the year is rising at a slower-than-normal pace.

Average U.S. pump prices have dropped more than 20 cents over the past month to $2.79 a gallon, according to the AAA travel agency.

"The gasoline bull market is definitely over," said Michael Lynch, director of Strategic Energy and Economic Research Inc. of Winchester, Mass.

Tom Kloza, director of Oil Price Information Service, predicted that pump prices could fall to $2.65 a gallon as early as next week, given the huge drop at the wholesale level since early August.

But he does not believe wholesale prices have much further to fall.

Gasoline futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange have fallen roughly 25 percent over the past month to $1.75 a gallon.

As is customary, pump prices are declining much more slowly, allowing retailers to earn more per gallon than when prices are increasing.

Despite this anomaly, motorists such as Carlos Richards of Washington, D.C., say any cheaper gas at all is welcome. Richards, 31, an auto mechanic who plans to drive to Williamsburg, Va., over the long Labor Day weekend, said, "We know it's not staying down, that much we know."