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Surpassing initial estimates by more than half a million dollars and more than tripling last week's estimate, the Tucson Unified School District could save $4.7 million to $6.7 million a year if it moves forward with school closures, according to a report released Wednesday.

The new projections are based on the closure of eight schools and two alternative high school programs, rather than the closure of four elementary schools and the relocation of two alternative programs the district already has recommended.

TUSD Governing Board President Alex Rodriguez said the recommendations add a critical element to the talks of school closures but must be mulled over by the board, current Superintendent Roger Pfeuffer and Elizabeth Celania-Fagen, who will take over in July.

The savings estimates remain subject to change, too, warned district officials and those who prepared the independent report, because there are unexpected costs that accompany school closures. The district is pushing for the closures of four elementary schools as part of cost-saving measures in the face of a projected $20 million deficit in the 2008-09 school year.

While the report doesn't explicitly recommend school closures or include the estimated savings of closures in its summary of potential savings, the revised audit report clearly states that TUSD should consider closing schools.

"The district is operating too many small schools that are costly and inefficient to maintain. Its capacity appears to be sufficient overall but poorly distributed; hence the need to use a significant number of portables," said the new findings by MGT of America Inc. "Given TUSD's shortfall in operating funding, it cannot afford to operate small schools with small enrollments."

The latest savings estimate comes from the Facilities Use and Management section of the audit, composed by MGT in response to district accounting errors last year. Previously withheld from the public, the section was released, unannounced, Wednesday on TUSD's Web site.

MGT first presented its findings at a TUSD board meeting last week. MGT officials said then that TUSD would save $260,000 yearly from closing Corbett, Erickson, Menlo Park, Ochoa, Rogers and Wrightstown elementary schools, Naylor Middle School, Santa Rita High School, and the Downtown Alternative and PACE Alternative high school programs.

Though some board and community members at the meeting initially found hope that the low estimate might curtail closures, it quickly became clear the estimate was incorrect, with board member Joel Ireland calling the number "unbelievable."

TUSD already has been working to close Corbett, Ochoa, Rogers and Wrightstown and move the two alternative high school programs. District officials said last week that they believe the moves will save $1.8 million.

Fred Forrer, CEO of MGT, said his company's initial estimate was incorrect because auditors made calculations based on the total number of classrooms at the eight schools — 234 — instead of the total number of seats available — 5,921.

"There are no problems with the data the district provided us," he said. "It was MGT leaving out an important element of the calculation inadvertently. The responsibility is ours."

"We'll have a full report and explanation" at the next board meeting on Tuesday, said Joann Cox, project director of the audit. TUSD paid MGT about $160,000 for the report.

The revised audit includes 74 recommendations, 22 which have potential savings. The annual net savings, if TUSD follows MGT's recommendations, are $3.2 million to $3.8 million, totaling $17 million over five years.

Combining the reduction of portables and the savings of school closures, TUSD could save an additional $30 million to $40 million over five years, the report states. However, savings from reduction of portable classrooms and potential school closures were not included because neither was specifically recommended.

TUSD uses 311 portable classrooms, according to the report. Cutting that by 50 percent could create a five-year savings of more than $6.4 million.

Based on enrollment, the report states, TUSD could save more than $4.7 million annually if it closes the eight schools and two alternative programs. But using the average cost per student seat, it adds, TUSD could save nearly $6.7 million.

"It is evident that school closures, as difficult as they are to accomplish, can and should result in significant annual savings to the district," the report states. "The five-year projected savings could reduce district expenditures by between $23,536,875 and $33,365,755."

The report estimates about 4,000 current students would be affected by the closures. No cost for transportation of those students to other schools is included in the audit.

Rudy Flores, TUSD's director of engineering, facilities and planning, said the school-closures estimate is higher than it should be because MGT didn't include the administrative cost, per student, of nurses, counselors and librarians.

"The numbers are fluid. It all depends on what we do with the buildings. It all depends on what we do with the space and how we address special programs at the schools," he said. "All of those have costs associated with them and will define what the actual savings will be."