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Tucson Electric Power Co. has won a $100,000 federal grant to evaluate whether solar energy systems could be an effective replacement for other power sources.

The grant, from the U.S. Department of Energy's Solar America Initiative, will be used to pay researchers, who will develop a better way to predict power output from a solar system.

Computers collect data in 10-second intervals at TEP's solar array in Springerville. Researchers want to analyze the data to find ways to forecast how much power will be available in the long-term to meet consumer demand, said Joe Salkowski, TEP spokesman.

The grant comes as state utilities are under increasing pressure to ramp up their production of renewable energy. The Arizona Corporation Commission recently decreed that all utilities must generate 15 percent of the state's energy from renewable resources by 2025. At that time, about 5 percent of the energy must come from solar cells.

Solar power isn't like other power resources. Coal generators, for example, work at or near their peak levels more than 90 percent of the time, Salkowski said. But with solar, weather can cause significant fluctuations in short periods of time, changing the production levels of the system.

"Passing clouds can reduce the output of a photovoltaic array by 80 percent or more in less than a minute's time," said Tom Hansen, TEP vice president. "Utility planners and system power dispatchers will need tools to manage such volatility in order to economically balance the resources necessary to provide safe, reliable electric service."

The results of the research will be ready in a year, and other utility companies will be able to use the findings to gain a better understanding of solar systems' performance, Salkowski said.

Last year, TEP's SunShare program showed that 324 home rooftop solar systems produced 9,400 megawatt hours of power — enough energy to meet the annual electric need of 880 average Tucson homes, Salkowski said. Additionally, the Springerville array produced enough energy to meet the annual electric need of 727 average Tucson homes.

TEP provides electric service to nearly 395,000 Southern Arizona customers.