Nation

Migration's effect debated

WASHINGTON - The fight over U.S. immigration policy, plenty intense already, is about to become even more contentious as it is pulled into the debate over Social Security and its projected financial crisis. At a time when many members of Congress want to curtail the near-record flow of foreign-born citizens to American shores, new studies suggest that a reduction from today's levels of immigration could deepen the Social Security crisis. Beyond that, some economists say, immigration's impact could go well beyond Social Security, emerging as a decisive factor in the United States' ability to remain economically competitive worldwide in the 21st century. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich says the unresolved controversy over U.S. immigration policy "is probably the most powerful underlying debate in the country," one that could help determine whether the United States is able to fend off challenges to its economic superiority from China and India. The idea that immigration might provide a partial answer to the slow population growth that could bedevil the U.S. economy and its ability to sustain Social Security and other entitlement programs comes at a time of great political tumult over U.S. immigration policy. President Bush, seeking to support immigration but thin the millions of illegal aliens now living in the country, is proposing a guest-worker program that could provide a pathway for 8 million or more undocumented people to obtain legal residency. Some in Congress are taking the opposite tack, arguing that immigration must be reduced because it is a threat to national security and offers few compensating benefits. "Is there anyone on the planet who does not realize that terrorists take advantage of porous borders?" said Rep. Tom Tancredo, the Colorado Republican who leads the anti-immigration movement. Bush has promised immigration opponents an opportunity this year to press their cause, which gained momentum in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks on the United States. Many in Congress want to reduce the annual influx of immigrants, now about 1.2 million people a year and up substantially from average 20th century levels. Other kinds of immigration curbs are also being advanced, including legislation that would discourage states from issuing driver's licenses to undocumented residents. Supporters of legal immigration are countering with studies suggesting that immigrants may be important players in determining how well the country responds to the Social Security and Medicare challenges, and even whether it continues to be an economic superpower. A recent report sponsored by a pro-immigration group, Merage Foundation for the American Dream, concluded that the projected Social Security shortfall could be worsened by 10 percent if legal immigration were reduced by one-third; commensurately, the shortfall could be eased by 10 percent if immigration went up one-third. These and other studies suggesting positive economic benefits from immigration are hotly contested by other experts and interest groups. For example, a new study from two Columbia University economists, Donald Davis and David Weinstein, argues that immigration erodes the United States' advantage in technology and ends up costing American consumers more than $100 billion a year. The president leaves no doubt about where he stands. In a special section of his annual economic report Bush touts the economic benefits of immigration, and specifically notes that immigrants help fill the coffers of Social Security and Medicare. Observing that immigrants tend to be young and have larger-than-normal families, the report said the foreign-born "expand the labor force and slow the ongoing decline in the ratio of workers per retirees." Robert Gordon, a Northwestern University economist, said in a paper published by the Brookings Institution that the actuaries' projections on immigration are "ridiculously low," causing a more pessimistic view of Social Security than is warranted. Higher immigration, paired with better than predicted worker productivity, could significantly ease the Social Security problem, according to Gordon.