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Arizona business leaders are growing increasingly pessimistic about the economy, judging from a confidence index tracked by the University of Arizona's Eller College of Management and Compass Bank.

The Arizona Business Leaders Confidence Index declined by 3.5 points in the second quarter to a reading of 36.9 — the lowest reading since the survey began in mid-2003. A number below 50 indicates worsening conditions.

The index has declined in each of the past four surveys, stretching back to the second quarter of 2007.

With economists nationwide forecasting a short and mild recession during the first half of this year, Arizona's growth-driven economy is feeling the pinch, Marshall Vest, Director of the Economic and Business Research Center at the Eller College, wrote in his analysis.

"Arizona, because of its high concentration of employment in growth-related sectors and the record-setting decline in housing markets, is suffering commensurately," the report said.

As part of a survey conducted in early March, panelists were asked to record their expectations for the second quarter.

With the index below 50 and still dropping, they are not expecting conditions to improve during the second quarter, the report said.