Kelly Presnell/Arizona Daily Star 2007

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The Arizona Business Conditions Index fell in February to its lowest level since December 2001 suggesting the state economy is headed for recession.

In February, the index dipped to 46.3, marking the third straight month the index has been below 50. Any reading below 50 suggests the economy is heading for a contraction.

The reading for January was 49.6, and for December it was 47.7.

Since the index began in 1962, it has predicted every recession four to six months in advance, said Arizona State University economist Dawn McLaren. That would put the onset of a recession in Arizona in the next two or three months, McLaren said.

The index is based on a survey of Arizona members of the Institute of Supply Management.