Rapid growth of the Tucson area is illustrated by the burgeoning housing near the Central Arizona Project canal in Avra Valley. Water and its availability are crucial to growth.

David Sanders / Arizona Daily Star

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Talking about growth is a stroll through a garden of flowers and weeds. The stunning prospects of prosperity fed by newcomers can be choked by misinterpreted data and lack of public policy.

Economists and public officials exposed 57 Western-state journalists and association executives to the thorns of growth Friday during "Covering Growth in the West," an educational symposium held at the Star.

Here are a few tidbits from the symposium that might spark community conversation:

● Arizona has been one of the fastest-growing states in the nation for more than 100 years. No one forecasts a reversal in that trend. Population growth will be a constant — how our state grows is up to us through public policies.

● The possibility of a better life is what has attracted new residents to the West since the wagons left St. Louis and will continue to drive population here, said University of Arizona economist Marshall Vest, director of the Economic and Business Research Center at the UA's Eller College of Management.

A warm climate, few natural disasters, relatively inexpensive housing, job availability and low taxes draw new residents here.

However, Arizona has a reputation as a state of "haves" and "have-nots," with a mediocre workforce, a troubled school system and a poor quality of life.

● The state has a high rate of population churn — people moving in and out of the state. It is difficult to develop sensible, sustainable public policy when a quarter of the population wasn't here five years ago, said Vest.

Many newcomers don't know the history and culture of the community and may not be fully engaged or invested. However, that churn also means there are fresh ideas.

● Don't trust the "multiplier effect" used in economic analysis. Christopher Thornberg, a senior economist at UCLA Anderson School of Management and founder of Beacon Economics, said that economic analyses are often built on faulty assumptions. For example, be wary if a facility claims that it will bring a certain number of jobs into a community. Often those jobs are "multiplied" to indicate they will generate additional jobs and other expenditures, such as housing and retail sales.

But that assumes the folks taking those new jobs do not have a job and are not already contributing to the economy.

● External jobs bring dollars into the community, while internal jobs recirculate money within the community. Economic development must focus on external jobs — those from which money comes into the community. Internal jobs, such as personal services and retail, only transfer the money around the community.

● No discussion about growth is complete without discussing water.

"No new water is created," said Sharon Megdal, director of the UA Water Resources Research Center. That means managing what the state has and what it can obtain from other sources.

That task is extremely complex: Ground and surface water are managed separately, as are water quality and quantity and Colorado River water.

Megdal conducted a water availability study that embraced several scenarios into the year 2030. The study looked only at sources and supply — it did not look at costs to deliver the water, agriculture, mining or environmental uses.

Our state may have access to water, but it needs to determine how much it wants to pay for it and whether our state wants to use its water resources for people.

● "Not all growth is good," said several panelists, including Joe Snell, head of Tucson Regional Economic Opportunities Inc., our area's economic development agent.

Snell said growth and economic development are a fine balancing act. Taxes are needed to provide services, but taxes must be in line to be competitive with other communities recruiting new jobs.

● The major issue that flowed through all of the discussions was the need to improve education.

Snell said manufacturing will no longer create a middle class of folks with minimal skills making a decent living. Education must create that middle class.

He said the optimal economic development strategy is the availability of skilled labor. He'd like Arizona's schools to exceed national and international standards and create a worldclass workforce.

Presenters made it clear that educating our children must be a state priority if our state is to achieve in a knowledge-based economy based on brains, not brawn. For that to happen, Arizona must create a culture in which education is a priority.

Journalists from Arizona, California and Nevada attended Friday's symposium, which was sponsored by the Communications Institute, the Thomas R. Brown Foundations, the Arizona Newspapers Association, Arizona Capitol Times and the Star.

Growth may bring blooms of new jobs, ideas and improved lives. However, it must be tended and sowed with public policies and community conversation that involves us all.