![]() Sen. John McCain, campaigning in California, has picked up the endorsement of Nancy Reagan. Her late husband is a revered figure among many Republicans, and McCain hopes he can win the Reagans' home state. Mary Altaffer / The Associated Press
CORT WAREHOUSE/DRIVER Education Assessment Technology, Inc Social Studies Content Writer General CORT Warehouse Supervisor Construction Komatsu Equipment Co Mechanic Health Care Rio Salado College PA's/Online Instructors Tucson RegionMcCain's race, possible win: what it all means to Arizonaarizona daily star
Tucson, Arizona | Published: 03.26.2008
Barry Goldwater once said, "It's a great country, where anybody can grow up to be president . . . except me."
Forty-four years after the legendary Arizonan lost his 1964 presidential bid, the successor to his Senate seat — John McCain — has essentially clinched the GOP nomination.
And this time around, it turns out that McCain has the home-court advantage in a region that will be heavily targeted by both sides in November.
For Arizonans, that could mean a lot for the state's national profile.
In the years since Goldwater got stomped, the presidential electoral map — which sets the strategy for the campaigns — has shifted dramatically. Western and Southern states have gained 52 electoral votes, while the Midwest and Eastern Seaboard have seen their influence erode because of population shifts.
So expect the issues that matter most here — immigration, water, growth, the environment, transportation and land use — to get ample attention from McCain and whomever his Democratic opponent turns out to be, strategists say.
Add to that prominence at September's Republican National Convention. And a potential domino effect on Arizona's state and local races, with vulnerable GOP candidates leaning on the popular senator hoping it will give them a boost.
But as far tangible benefits go, the economic impact could be scant, unless you own tourist property around a possible western White House in Sedona. With McCain almost assuredly having the state locked up, his candidacy could take Arizona out of the campaign mainstream, even as the surrounding region becomes a focal point.
Of the 10 men who have run for president in the last 30 years, three have been from the South, two from Texas, two from Massachusetts, two from the Midwest and one from California. But the Southwest has, until now, has been AWOL from the ballot.
McCain has highlighted his experience on immigration, environmental issues and transportation as areas in which, as an Arizona senator, he is strong. His more moderate stance on immigration could appeal to Hispanic voters, some Republicans predict.
While statewide candidates on either extreme of the immigration debate have foundered, McCain's stance has been more in line with that of Democratic Gov. Janet Napolitano — who has called for a combination of border security and a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants. McCain, who supported a comprehensive bill last summer, now says the border must be secured first — citing public distrust with the federal government.
"I think a large portion of the voting Hispanic population will feel we have to secure the border, while also being respectful to the Hispanic community," said Alberto Gutier, a longtime Republican activist and a McCain supporter.
McCain's nomination also adds a new dimension to the Democratic Party's goal of targeting the West — Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado. Combined, those swing states have 29 electoral votes, more than Florida or Ohio, which were crucial in the last two presidential elections.
Republicans and McCain supporters say that Democratic strategy has basically been quashed by McCain's nomination, and issues that are particularly important to Arizonans will be spotlighted more than they otherwise would.
The Republican senator even views California — where he's campaigning this week — as being in play, although the state has voted for a Democrat in every election since 1992.
"If you look at his record in the Senate, he is certainly better versed on Indian issues, on water issues, on land-use issues than any other nominee from either party in recent memory," said Tucsonan Mike Hellon, co-chairman of McCain's Arizona campaign. "To the extent those issues require attention in the West, you're talking about someone who has firsthand knowledge of them."
Democrats say their Western strategy is still viable — even in Arizona. Arizona Democratic Party spokeswoman Emily Bittner predicts the election will be decided on the issues of Iraq and the economy, "not the state that John McCain calls home."
"I don't think John McCain has particularly served the people of Arizona well," Bittner said, adding that she believes he has repositioned himself to the right to win conservative support.
To enhance their appeal in the West, Democrats will hold their August convention in Denver, a destination designed to reach out to regional voters. And while the Republican convention is planned for Minneapolis — also part of an important electoral region — Arizona is expected to play a prominent role there.
"It certainly shows that we're on the map for a lot of people," said state Rep. Jonathan Paton, a Tucson Republican and a McCain backer.
Those involved in finding candidates to run for delegate positions predict the Arizona delegation will be front and center at the convention, with substantial media attention.
McCain's allies are working to avoid an embarrassment, because the senator has faced raised eyebrows from conservatives here on his home court — a revelation that received significant national media attention during the primary.
"There's still pockets of people within our party that are difficult to deal with," Hellon said.
Republicans will select their delegates at a May 10 meeting in Mesa, and supporters are working to fill the 50 spots with McCain fans.
Texas has seen its fair share of presidential attention in the last two decades, with the current and former Presidents George Bush coming from the state.
George C. Edwards, a political science professor at Texas A&M University, said that while "Texans may have had better parties" at the conventions and found high-profile politicos in positions of power, the impact on the state is likely to be insignificant for most voters.
In fact, Edwards said the state might end up losing attention, as Texas did in 2000 and 2004, because candidates don't bother to campaign there.
"When a state is not competitive, the candidates ignore it," Edwards said. "That's what's going to happen to Arizona. John McCain is going to have a feel-good rally, but it's not designed to win votes."
Hellon said McCain, who got 78 percent of the vote in his 2004 re-election here, still has to decide whether to wage a 50-state campaign or focus on only the more competitive states.
"You can make an argument that time and attention and resources should be invested someplace else," Hellon said.
And what if McCain is elected president?
In Sedona, the small resort community near where McCain owns a ranch, officials already have begun discussions about the effects McCain's nomination and potential election might have on the area, said Jennifer Wesselhoff, president and chief executive officer of the Sedona Chamber of Commerce. Airport and law-enforcement authorities have even discussed what increased security measures would mean for the community.
But Wesselhoff also suspects there would be an economic boost for the town of 10,000 if it became the location of McCain's western White House.
"We think that John McCain having a home in the Sedona area really creates the appeal of this as a premier destination," she said.
● Contact reporter Daniel Scarpinato at 307-4339 or at dscarpinato@azstarnet.com.
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