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A dismal winter snow season is projected to keep rivers near record-low levels around the state this spring.

Runoff into most rivers will fall below 30 percent of normal, according to hydrologists.

The Salt River near Roosevelt is forecast to receive barely 20 percent of its expected snowmelt, and the Little Colorado River near Woodruff could wind up with just 7 percent of its normal runoff.

Runoff from high-country snow provides Arizona rivers with as much as 70 percent of their annual flow, which means if there is no snow, some of those rivers will shrink to a trickle or less by the start of summer.

Despite the dry winter, experts say water sources in the Phoenix metropolitan area are in good condition.

Heavy rain and snow in early 2005 filled in-state reservoirs, and the Colorado River system is expected to receive normal runoff for a second year.

But farmers as close as Pinal County will face tight irrigation supplies, and some mountain communities are already anticipating possible shortages.

"What we're going to have at the end of April is what we're going to have to work with through the end of the year," said Larry Martinez, water supply specialist for the Natural Resources Conservation Service in Phoenix. "As a rule, May and June are the driest months of the year, and the monsoons won't help the reservoirs much."

The state drought coordinating group will recommend that Gov. Janet Napolitano extend a drought emergency declaration, which can free up money from state and federal sources.

State officials have asked U.S. Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns to issue a similar declaration, which could bring even more federal money to farmers and ranchers.

On April 1, the statewide snowpack was 28 percent of normal, with regional readings ranging from about 17 percent on the Mogollon Rim to 50 percent at the Grand Canyon.