Sat, Nov 22, 2008
While Sen. John McCain has been mum about a vice presidential pick, pundits and political junkies are eyeing enough possibilities to make your head spin.
Chuck Kennedy / McClatchy-Tribune
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Tucson Region

Running-mate roulette

Potential picks are plentiful — as are pluses and pitfalls — while McCain looks for VP candidate to bolster his ticket
By Daniel Scarpinato
ARIZONA DAILY STAR
Tucson, Arizona | Published: 02.11.2008
Call it the match game.
With Arizona Sen. John McCain close to securing the Republican nomination for president, the talk has turned to whom he might pick to run with him in the fall.
The theories are vast, and selection is likely months away.
"We have a long time before that decision needs to be made, longer than anyone ever has before," said Republican Grant Woods, a former Arizona attorney general and chief of staff for McCain.
Republican strategists, political experts and McCain allies say conventional wisdom would dictate that McCain pick a Southern governor who is perceived as more conservative than himself.
"The theory is a nominee for president ought to seek a vice presidential running mate that is the yin to his yang — someone who has the strengths that may be perceived as weaknesses for the nominee," said Stan Barnes, a former Arizona legislator turned political consultant.
Barnes and others added that if anyone is likely to break the mold, it's McCain. But he wouldn't be the first.
In 1992, Bill Clinton shocked pundits by picking a fellow Southerner, Al Gore, even as advisers recommended that he add some geographical diversity to the Democratic ticket. Then in 2000, George W. Bush picked for his running mate Dick Cheney — a Washington insider who wasn't even on the radar of journalists or GOP observers.
That said, McCain could benefit from looking outside of Washington, experts say. Why? Well, it's been 48 years since the country has elected a sitting member of Congress to the presidency, and the veteran senator could benefit by choosing someone who is knowledgeable on domestic issues.
"We need to go south," said Alberto Gutier, a Republican consultant and a McCain backer.
There are a number of qualified and conservative governors for McCain to choose from if he's seeking to balance the GOP ticket and court conservatives.
Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty is a 47-year-old tax cutter who has taken a hard stance on immigration — an area in which McCain has angered many in the GOP. Pawlenty also is a member of an evangelical church and might reach out to churchgoing voters.
Former Bush adviser Karl Rove has said that McCain would be smart to pick someone from the "upper Midwest," and the Republican National Convention will take place in Pawlenty's home state.
Down South, the options are plenty: Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour, South Carolina Gov. Mark Sanford and Florida Gov. Charles Crist, who campaigned with McCain during the lowest points of his run for the nomination.
"Crist was there when it counted," said Ed Constantini, a political science professor at the University of California at Davis who specializes in presidential politics.
Age could be a factor in the pick. McCain, 71, might want to add someone under 60. That's why experts say former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson and North Carolina Sen. Elizabeth Dole might be off the list.
Much could depend on whom the Democrats nominate, said pollster Bruce Merrill, naming Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice as a potential pick if McCain is running against either New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton or Illinois Sen. Barack Obama.
Barnes agrees. "That's fun for a lot of reasons," he said of Rice. "In one stroke, she's eminently qualified."
McCain's Tucson surrogate, GOP activist Mike Hellon, mentioned Texas Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison. Others agreed, but they noted that at 64, Hutchison could be a risky choice.
However, Fred Solop, a political science professor at Northern Arizona University, said age may be a non-issue.
Meanwhile, the biggest problem with Rice could be her lack of interest and experience in running for office.
"I wouldn't reach out to someone who hasn't run in campaigns before," said Margaret Kenski, a Republican pollster who has worked for McCain.
Finally, McCain could look at uniting the party after a long and sometimes divisive primary by picking one of his main rivals — Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee.
But McCain, who is good at attracting independents and polls well against the Democrats, needs to be careful to not reach too far to the right, some say.
"I think that what Sen. McCain is probably focusing on is somebody who has good conservative credentials and, at the same time, can talk to all Americans, not just conservatives," said Bruce Ash, the state GOP national committeeman.
And Merrill — who described McCain as a "neo-populist" — said that instead of using the vice presidential pick as a way to reach out to the conservative base, he might be better off locking down his support from moderates.
"A lot of people in this country are sick of the partisanship," said Merrill, who is an Arizona State University political science professor in addition to a pollster. "I think they're looking for someone to stand up and say, 'Screw all that.'"
On StarNet: Find videos from the campaign trail and more election coverage at azstarnet.com/politics.
● Contact reporter Daniel Scarpinato at 307-4339 or dscarpinato@azstarnet.com.