David Sanders / arizona daily star

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A University of Arizona program that can more accurately predict when a monsoon storm or other storm will strike is helping Davis-Monthan Air Force Base pilots avoid flying through stormy skies.

The program, developed nationally and tailored to Arizona's climate by the UA's Physics and Atmospheric Sciences Department, allows military weather forecasters to get a clearer picture of what's happening in the atmosphere.

UA researchers and D-M officials said the technology sharing is a two-way street, allowing the university to test its program and get feedback on it while the base gets a new tool to help forecast the weather.

And with leaders at the highest level of both the base and the university supporting the program, officials said the project could pave the way for future collaboration, as the UA helps D-M answer some of the toughest weather-related questions, such as how to predict wind gusts in Southern Arizona.

"I see huge potential here in the future," said Eric Betterton, director of the atmospheric sciences department.

The U.S. Air Force personnel forecasting the weather at the Tucson base are responsible for providing accurate information for all military flights in the United States west of the Rocky Mountains, so it's important that they use the best technology available, said Capt. Bill Ryerson, a member of the 25th Operational Weather Squadron.

While it might seem redundant to have military personnel forecasting when the National Weather Service already puts out forecasts, the Air Force's work focuses both on ground conditions and what's occurring in the atmosphere where the military aircraft are flying.

"Forecasting for aircraft is much more sensitive than determining if it's going to rain on your picnic on Saturday," Ryerson said.

To get the most accurate forecast possible, D-M airmen recently began using the UA's Weather Research and Forecasting Model, which simulates what the weather will be like in the future.

Originally developed by several weather agencies, including the National Center for Atmospheric Research, the program takes data collected throughout the state and uses it to predict what might happen in the future.

The technology then was tweaked by Mike Leuthold, a principal systems programmer with the UA department, who sought to account for Arizona's unique climate.

Using high-end computers that process data collected throughout Arizona, Leuthold was able to construct one of the clearest pictures of what was about to happen in the skies above the state.

Unlike the National Weather Service model, which measures data at intervals of up to 20 kilometers — about 12 miles — the UA's program measures the weather on a grid with data points roughly 2 kilometers — or about 1.2 miles — apart.

The closer the data points, the better picture forecasters get, meaning surface features that can affect the weather get picked up.

"It's going to have much better accuracy with things like mountain ranges," Ryerson said.

Knowing what's happening over nearby mountain ranges is important in Southern Arizona because the peaks play a role in the development of monsoon storms, Leuthold said.

Because the program requires such heavy-duty computer work, the model built by the UA covers only Arizona and pieces of Mexico, Utah, Nevada, Colorado and New Mexico.

But the department is planning to upgrade its technology soon and will be able to double the model's range to include Southern California and most of the other states in the Southwest, Leuthold said.

The model already has proved useful at predicting where a storm will move and how much rain will fall on a particular area.

While monsoon storms are notoriously unpredictable, the model helps show where they might pop up in the future, which can allow for D-M to plan around them, Ryerson said.

Given the early success of the model, and the fact that UA is getting a chance to test its lab work in actual conditions, the mutually beneficial relationship has UA and base officials thinking about working together on future weather problems.

One of the biggest concerns Air Force forecasters have to deal with is knowing when and where wind gusts will occur.

Operating in a region prone to gusty winds and microbursts, it's crucial that D-M come up with a better way to predict wind patterns, Ryerson said.

Because the airmen working at D-M are more focused on operations, they don't have the time to devote to research, which is where the UA could fill in.

Beginning next fall, incoming graduate students in the Physics and Atmospheric Sciences Department will have the opportunity to research a topic the base has brought to the UA's attention, Betterton said.

The UA would provide the guidance of faculty while D-M would provide the computing resources and the data for the students to use, with the goal of helping to better predict the weather for aircraft at D-M.

"We'd be working on problems of interest to them and they'd be providing us with the data that we need," Betterton said.