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Pederson narrows Kyl lead, poll says

Survey of 400 shows Demo has slight Pima County lead
By Josh Brodesky
arizona daily star
Tucson, Arizona | Published: 11.03.2006
With the election less than a week away, Democrat Jim Pederson continues to close on Republican Sen. Jon Kyl, pulling within 4.5 points, according to a poll released Thursday.
A survey of 400 likely voters from across the state, showed Pederson trailing Kyl 45.8 percent to 41.3 percent with 9 percent of voters still undecided. Libertarian Richard Mack received 3.7 percent.
The difference is within the poll's 4.9 point margin of error. The survey by Zimmerman and Associates and Marketing Intelligence was conducted Oct. 25-30.
Over the last few months, most polls have shown Pederson steadily closing the gap with Kyl. A recent ASU poll placed Pederson within six points.
The poll produces some interesting breakdowns in where each candidate's strengths are.
Pederson scored highest with women, at roughly 48 percent to 42 percent. Kyl was preferred by men 49 percent to 36 percent.
Kyl is strongest in Maricopa County, by almost 10 points, while Pederson holds about a one-point edge in Pima County and three points around the rest of the state.
Pederson was more popular with voters in the 44 and younger age groups, while Kyl scored higher with those 45 and above.
"It shows we have momentum right now," said Mark Bergman, Pederson's campaign spokesman. "We are continuing to close on Jon Kyl. This race is a dead heat."
Kyl spokesman Andy Chasin, however, expressed skepticism.
"The poll's independent sample is far too high," he said in an e-mail. "We have more recent polling with much more than 400 respondents that shows Kyl has twice as much of a lead."
About 23 percent of the poll's respondents were independents or members of the Green or Libertarian parties.
Chasin said he questions the number of independent voters the poll surveyed, saying while it may reflect voter demographics, it does not reflect voting turnout.
"Let's also remember Pederson has spent more than $12 million on negative attacks against Jon Kyl, and we are still winning in every poll," he said.
The telephone survey asked likely voters how they plan to vote in the race but not why they picked the candidate of their choice.
Chris Baker, of Marketing Intelligence, characterized it as "a really quick poll."
"There were no open-response questions," he said.
While the overall numbers are accurate, Baker said smaller demographic breakdowns could have a margin of error up to 10 points because of the smaller sample size.
However, he said on the state level the poll is accurate, noting that it falls in line with the recent ASU poll.
The poll also included questions about several propositions.
It indicated Proposition 107, Protect Marriage Arizona, will likely be defeated. A slight majority of those surveyed also said they did not support either state land measure.
Meanwhile, it showed Proposition 204, Humane Treatment of Farm Animals, and Proposition 300, which would require U.S. citizenship for certain government services, will likely pass, with each receiving more than 50 percent support.
● Contact reporter Josh Brodesky at 434-4086 or jbrodesky@azstarnet.com.