Mon, Jul 06, 2009

Tucson Region

Four propositions on entrants out in front

Proponents even expecting votes from Hispanics
By Brady McCombs
Arizona Daily Star
Tucson, Arizona | Published: 10.29.2006
Comfortably leading in the polls and lying low in the shadows of more talked-about races, a foursome of ballot measures aimed at curbing illegal immigration appears headed to victory.
Propositions 100, 102 and 103 lead by at least 25 percentage points in a poll of 1,019 voters released last week by KAET-TV, the Phoenix PBS affiliate.
Proposition 300 holds a seven-point advantage in the same poll, which has a potential margin of error of 3 percentage points.
"My guess is that all of the immigration issues will pass with the possible exception of 300," said pollster Bruce Merrill, a political scientist with Arizona State University's Walter Cronkite School of Journalism.
Proponents of the measures are so confident they didn't bother to spend money on TV advertisements, signs or committees.
The passage of a similar proposition in 2004, Proposition 200, and the increased awareness about illegal immigration make this year's measures easier to sell to voters, said Don Goldwater, a gubernatorial candidate who lost in the Republican primary last month.
"I don't think we have to hammer home the issue like we did with Prop. 200," said Goldwater, the Phoenix chapter president of the Minuteman Civil Defense Corps border watch group.
In Tucson, opponents have organized rallies and press conferences and sent out signs, fliers and letters. But the efforts pale in comparison to those made in 2004 by groups working, unsuccessfully, to defeat that year's Proposition 200. That measure denies certain public benefits to people living here illegally, and also requires proof of U.S. citizenship to register to vote or to cast a ballot.
Advocates who have been rallying in defense of immigrants since late 2005 are low on energy and unable to tap into financial support, said Alexis Mazón, who was chairwoman of the Tucson-based Campaign to Defeat Prop. 200 in 2004.
"There has just been an onslaught of anti-immigrant measures both locally in Arizona and at the federal level so it's been very difficult to find resources and time to campaign against everything," said Mazón, of the Coalición de Derechos Humanos in Tucson. "It's just been raining down literally every week."
Three of the four propositions on this year's Nov. 7 ballot began as bills in the Legislature and became propositions on the ballot after they didn't pass or were vetoed by the governor.
Proposition 100 would automatically keep illegal immigrants charged with serious felonies in jail without bail. Proposition 102 would prevent illegal immigrants from receiving punitive damages in civil lawsuits. Proposition 300 would prevent illegal immigrants from taking adult-education classes, getting state-funded child care assistance and paying in-state tuition at state colleges and universities.
Proposition 103, which would make English the state's official language, is similar to a proposition passed by state voters in 1988 and overruled a decade later by the Arizona and U.S. Supreme Courts.
Opponents contend the measures will harm children, burden state institutions and do nothing to stop illegal immigration. Proponents say the measures would save taxpayer money and make Arizona a difficult place for illegal immigrants to live.
With no formal effort to promote the measures and a grassroots campaign against them, the measures have stayed on the back burner this political season. Most voters don't know about races or propositions unless they see and hear about them in television or radio advertisements, Merrill said. The margins in the polls have prevented organizers from spending money.
"If they were very, very close I think you would see a lot more spent on them," Merrill said.
With 20 propositions on the ballot and high-profile Senate and House races, it's been difficult for opponents to get their message to voters, said Lorraine Lee, vice president of Chicanos Por La Causa, a nonprofit community-development corporation.
Overcoming year-round campaigns by organizations such as the Federation for American Immigration Reform and the Minuteman Civil Defense Corps that cast illegal immigrants as burdens and criminals is an uphill battle, especially without funding, Lee said.
"You are moving up and you have all these forces dragging us down," said Lee, who added that the media coverage of anti-illegal immigrant groups is disproportionate. "We don't look as dramatic as the Minutemen standing with cowboy hats and their boots in the desert."
The historically poor voter turnout from Latinos presents another obstacle. Latinos cast only 13 percent of total votes in the 2004 election, said Ramón Garcia of the Campaign for Community Change.
"They just don't vote and that really hurts them," Merrill said.
Opponents remain optimistic. The vote will be closer than it was on Prop. 200 in 2004 because more Hispanics will turn out to vote, predicts Tomás León, president of the Tucson Hispanic Chamber of Commerce.
The anti-immigrant rhetoric that has permeated the nation the past year will motivate voters to reject the measures, said Joel Foster, spokesman for My Family Votes, a nonpartisan group working to get Latino voters registered.
"I think the effect of the anti-immigrant rhetoric is going to be felt for years to come," Foster said. "I think the Latino community is more united than it's ever been."
Opponents in Tucson will spend the next 10 days making one final push.
The Pima County Interfaith Council, a nonprofit group of religious congregations, schools and community groups, has been visiting congregations to educate them on the propositions. See page A1 today for a related story on church-based political activities.
Chicanos Por La Causa has held press conferences and distributed fliers. My Family Votes is encouraging voters to vote no on 300 by making phone calls, going door-to-door and sending mail, said Foster.
On Monday, students plan to rally against Proposition 300 at the University of Arizona. The lack of funds is frustrating but it shouldn't stop opponents from rallying, said Sophia Saucido, a 21-year-old junior at the UA.
"You have to do it on a small scale to make it larger," she said.
But proponents remain confident that voters, including Hispanics, will pass the measures to protect their communities, Goldwater said.
"When people's lives are being threatened, when people's services are being threatened by criminals coming across the border, they have a tendency to talk about it and they talk with their vote," Goldwater said.
● Contact reporter Brady McCombs at 573-4213 or bmccombs@azstarnet.com.