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With the election less than two weeks away, Republican Randy Graf has not made much headway in closing the gap against Democrat Gabrielle Giffords in the District 8 congressional race, a poll by the Arizona Daily Star and KVOA Channel 4 shows.

Giffords led Graf by 10 percentage points in a survey of 600 likely voters taken Oct. 20 through Oct. 23, down slightly from about 13 points in a September Star/KVOA poll.

Giffords pulled in 48 percent of those polled, with 38 percent planning to vote for Graf in the Nov. 7 election.

Libertarian David Nolan and independent Jay Quick were each the candidate of choice for less than 2 percent of those polled. About 10 percent said they were undecided.

The poll, conducted by Zimmerman and Associates and Marketing Intelligence, has a 4 percentage-point margin of error.

When asked why they would vote for Giffords, 8 percent of her supporters cited illegal immigration. That compared with about 18 percent for Graf supporters. Twenty-eight percent of the Giffords supporters said they were voting for her because they agreed with her ideas and policy. Among Graf supporters, 35 percent cited party affiliation as the determining factor for their vote.

The poll did not ask likely voters to specify or rank issues that would get them to the polls. A previous Star poll on issues found that immigration was by far the top one, with 46 percent naming it. That was more than four times the next-most frequent response, the war in Iraq, cited by 10.7 percent of voters.

When voters were asked to rate the overall importance of a list of issues, immigration again finished on top in the September poll, with 82.3 percent rating it important or very important.

"We always knew this was going to be a tough race. We believed it was going to be fought in the center," said Giffords campaign manager Rodd McLeod.

But Graf's campaign manager, R.T. Gregg, called the poll results "inaccurate," saying he is conducting polling showing Graf within 5 points. He would not, however, provide any other information or data on the poll.

"I think that (Giffords) thinks your poll is inaccurate, too," Gregg said. "She's probably looking at the same results we're looking at and seeing that she's in trouble."

McLeod called that a "flat-out lie."

"Unfortunately, it's not a terribly big surprise because they've been getting their facts wrong," he said.

The Daily Star poll found that Graf has made some inroads with Republican voters but is still weak among those who "usually" vote Republican, as opposed to those who "almost always" vote Republican. Giffords has solid support among Democrats and leads Graf 2-to-1 in drawing third-party and independent voters.

Graf has picked up voters in the rural areas of the district, but in Pima County, Giffords leads Graf by 14 points.

Giffords also leads heavily among female voters with about 53 percent compared with about 32 percent for Graf. Graf leads slightly with men, but they are almost evenly split.

Giffords seems to be benefiting from both an anti-Graf sentiment as well as an anti-Republican/Bush vote — reflective of a national mood — with nearly a quarter of her supporters listing those as the reason for supporting her.

"I think there's a strong mood across the country that we need a new direction," McLeod said. "People understand Gabrielle Giffords is all about change. We need accountability in our government."

But Gregg said Graf is for change, too.

"There are things going on in the country that Randy has absolutely nothing to do with," Gregg said. "If anything he's the anti-Washington candidate."

For the most part, voters are making their decisions independently of outside players, the poll found.

About 86 of respondents said they were following the Mark Foley resignation fallout, but 81 of those respondents said it would have no impact on their vote in District 8.

As for retiring Republican Rep. Jim Kolbe's refusal to endorse Graf, 85 percent say the lack of endorsement will have no effect on their vote. For those who care, they are evenly split between being more or less likely to vote for Graf.

And Sen. John McCain's endorsement of Graf is not influential to 75 percent of voters.

Many of the undecided voters may not actually vote, said pollster Carol Zimmerman, since a majority couldn't name any issue that was important to them in deciding how to vote.

On StarNet: Check out StarNet's election guide, complete with videos, slide shows and articles about the candidates and races at www.azstarnet.com/politics