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Tucson, Arizona | Published: 10.12.2006
At this point, Republican congressional candidate Ron Drake is used to the question. It follows him from campaign events to news conferences, and yet he welcomes it, sometimes with surprising ease.
Do you really think you have a chance to win?
"I think I have as good a chance of winning as Raúl Grijalva has," he said.
Nevertheless, Drake acknowledges most pundits have written him off in his challenge of Grijalva, the incumbent Democrat in Congressional District 7. Still, he's pushing on, offering a moderate conservative vision for Southern Arizona of growth, development and mild tax cuts.
Predominantly Democratic and heavily Hispanic, District 7 has more than 600,000 people and covers much of Southern Arizona. It reaches south to Nogales, west to Yuma and north to La Paz County as well as taking in Tucson's West and South sides and the suburbs west of Phoenix.
Analysts say it was made for a candidate like Grijalva.
"I would suspect that Grijalva is pretty safe in that district," said Bruce Merrill, a political scientist with Arizona State University's Walter Cronkite School of Journalism. "There's no way in the world a Republican could beat Grijalva."
Seeking his third term in Congress, Grijalva has echoed Merrill's assessment.
During a recent interview he referred to Drake as a "cosmetic candidate" and questioned his credentials for Congress.
"Particularly given the time right now in the nation, this is not a race where you can skate by cosmetically," he said.
Drake, who served for six years as mayor of Avondale, a West Phoenix suburb just inside the district, has at times been caught unprepared in this election. For example, when asked about his stance on the state's minimum- wage initiative in a recent interview, he admitted he hadn't read up on it. He was also admonished in the Tucson Weekly for not knowing the Protect Marriage amendment was on the ballot.
"One of the things that's required of us, is you have some semblance of understanding on the local issues going on and the national issues going on," Grijalva said.
In that regard, Drake's challenge has been to prove himself a viable candidate while also attacking Grijalva's record as one of the most liberal members of Congress.
That message has focused on Grijalva's lack of visibility outside Pima County.
"Where he doesn't have influence in the district, we're all doing well," he said, referring to growth in Yuma and Avondale.
A pro-business candidate, Drake has said he would work to bring more jobs to the region. He supports the option of workers investing a portion of Social Security. He is also a supporter of growth and development, and after researching the minimum wage initiative, which would raise the minimum wage to $6.75 an hour with room for inflation adjustments, he said he would not support it.
"I am not against (raising) the minimum wage, but I'm against the initiative because the initiative puts an adjustment on it," he said. "You are absolutely going to set the business side of Arizona on the ear with this."
On national issues Drake said he supports increased border security, including the recent fence legislation. He also is a proponent of staying the course in Iraq, but he did not answer the question of how long the war should continue.
"I don't have the military information that the congressman has," he said. "I don't know what the timetable is."
Where he has been most vocal though, is in saying Grijalva has lacked presence outside Tucson.
"You've got someone that does have roots in Tucson, and that's all he cares about," he said.
Grijalva has dismissed such attacks, saying he has documented more than 200 meetings outside \the Tucson area.
Grijalva supports the minimum-wage initiative, saying it will offer a living wage.
He has also pushed for comprehensive immigration reform that allows a path to citizenship for those who have come here illegally.
He criticized the recent border fence legislation, referring to it as a "political gesture."
On the war in Iraq, he has been equally critical, saying he supports an "exit strategy to get us out of there within six months."
"It's a financial issue, morale issue and it affects our credibility nationally," he said.
On Social Security, he is against any type of privatization, saying the surplus, which Congress often uses for other spending, needs to be left alone.
Such stances, particularly on immigration, have brought on heavy criticism from conservatives, which Drake has tried to tap into.
He commissioned a survey by pollster Margaret Kenski, which framed Grijalva as a liberal.
For example, one question asked people if they knew Grijalva co-signed a letter to the State Department asking for the United Nations to monitor U.S. elections.
Drake said the poll showed him within six points, but Kenski said that description is inaccurate.
"The race was substantially farther apart than that," she said.
What the poll showed was if voters were presented with a liberal picture of Grijalva "the race would tighten up," she said.
But producing that type of information, she said, takes resources and money.
The latest Federal Election Commission reports shows Drake with $5,924 cash on hand. Grijalva has $168,162.
Drake's odds look long, but nevertheless he has put in the time, making numerous appearances in Tucson and canvassing neighborhoods.
"It's always hard to beat an incumbent candidate," said Kenski. "Even if people can't recall a name they can recognize it."
"Just being involved is what the system is about," said Merrill, the ASU pollster, who was not speaking specifically about Drake. "I have a lot of respect for people who take the time to run, even though they have no chance."
On StarNet For video excerpts of the Star editorial board meeting between Grijalva and Drake, as well as the Star's Voter's Guide, go to azstarnet.com/politics
● Contact reporter Josh Brodesky at 434-4086 or jbrodesky@azstarnet.com.
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