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Arizona is undereducated and unlikely to reverse the problem without a strong commitment from state government, resulting in an increasingly uncompetitive work force dragging down the economy.

The preliminary results of a study commissioned by Pima Community College point to communities struggling as the ability for colleges and universities to deliver degrees falls increasingly short of the needs of a growing population, said Dennis P. Jones, president of the National Center for Higher Education Management Systems, which is conducting the study.

"Future economic competitiveness is going to be driven by brainpower, not raw materials," he said. "The future life chances of the citizens of Arizona are going to depend more than anything else on their level of education."

Arizona's population is undereducated compared to the rest of the country, which is increasingly becoming undereducated compared to the rest of the developed world, according to data Jones gathered from the U.S. Census and the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, a global group that works with governments on economic and social issues.

The United States is the only developed country in which the older population, 45 to 54 years old, is more educated than the younger population, 25 to 34 years old, according to the organization.

Nearly all future growth in Arizona will be in the Hispanic population. For school-age people, the white population will hardly grow at all, while the Hispanic population will more than triple by 2020, Jones said.

"Those students have about half the chance as Anglo students at graduating college, under the current circumstances," Jones said. "If Arizona can't do something to make Hispanic students more successful, then Arizona will be increasingly dependent on imports from some place else to drive its economy and you will have a two-tier economy."

For Arizona to reach the national average for the percentage of adults in its population with a college degree, it would need almost 80,000 more degrees immediately.

To reach the level of the top state, Massachusetts, it would need nearly 300,000 more adults with degrees, according to Census data.

There are numerous potential answers to Southern Arizona's crunch of affordability and accessibility to higher education, Jones said. They include:

● The University of Arizona could expand its enrollment, but Jones said it doesn't appear to be on a path to do so as it defines itself more as a research university.

● Pima College could expand its partnerships with the state universities and other institutions.

● Northern Arizona University could be more active in Pima County.

● With the huge enrollment growth potential, the state could reach the same conclusion that Nevada has and create one or more new four-year colleges.

● Pima could add bachelor's degree programs, tied closely to work-force needs.

"There's not been much evidence that at the state level some of these issues will be resolved," Jones said. "In absence of some state level leadership, the outcome will likely be that Pima Community College does something, whether developing some of the programs itself or being much more active in other partnerships."

Jones said several other shifts in focus could benefit the higher education system.

"One of the things that matters most is shifting the conversation from enrollment to completion," he said. "There are all kinds of incentives in the current process that keep the focus off completion."

With a "huge disconnect" existing between the expectations for high-school completion and the expectations for college readiness, higher education has to take more responsibility for the preparation of students as they come out of high school.

"It's not good enough for higher education to point to the K-12 system and say 'Fix it,' and all will be well," he said. "You don't solve that problem by anything but sitting down, faculty to faculty and discussing what students need to learn to be successful in college."

Pima's chancellor and board members said the study should spark a community discussion and pledged to work toward solutions.

"The reality is, we need to ensure there is access to not only baccalaureate degrees but master's and beyond if we're going to compete, not only with Maricopa County and Albuquerque, but on a global basis," said Chancellor Roy Flores. "Without that accessibility, we're going to fall further behind."

Board member Marty Cortez said the college is looking at providing as many options as possible for county residents.

"We no longer can say, 'This is how we deliver education,' and it's done. Education has to be mobile enough to change as needed in our community, in our county and in our state," she said. "The efforts need to be overlapping. Education should be at the forefront of meeting the challenges and the changes."

The college is spending $58,500 for the study and is seeking public comment on how to improve accessibility and affordability for higher education in Southern Arizona.

To comment, write chancellor@pima.edu.