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Democrat Gabrielle Giffords holds a solid lead over Republican Randy Graf in the Congressional District 8 race, according to a poll of likely voters sponsored by the Arizona Daily Star and KVOA Channel 4.

The poll, conducted by Zimmerman & Associates and Marketing Intelligence, also found immigration is, by far, the most compelling issue on voters' minds when choosing a candidate.

Giffords is ahead by 12.7 points. Graf's biggest problem seems to be capturing undecided voters and losing crossover Republican voters.

The poll, which has a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points, surveyed 600 likely voters in Congressional District 8 Sept. 16-19, just days after the two were named their parties' nominees in the primary election.

According to the poll, with seven weeks to go before the Nov. 7 general election, 48.4 percent of voters favor Giffords, 35.7 percent are in Graf's court and 13.4 percent are undecided.

Libertarian David Nolan and independent Jay Quick each had less than 2 percent.

The poll indicates 67 percent of Republican voters support Graf, compared with 84 percent of Democrats who are sticking with Giffords. What's more, 16 percent of Republicans say they plan to vote for her. And more than 55 percent of independents are supporting Giffords, as opposed to 21 percent going for Graf.

"Arizonans know that we need someone in Washington who can get something done," said Giffords' campaign manager, Rodd McLeod, emphasizing Giffords' "bipartisan" support.

Among Republicans, 15 percent are still undecided. Only 10 percent of Democrats have yet to choose a candidate in the Republican-leaning district currently represented by the retiring Jim Kolbe.

Graf campaign manager R.T. Gregg acknowledged the campaign needs to work on shoring up the Republican base.

"We certainly have our efforts focused on what we need to do to win," he said.

The poll offers a few surprises.

Graf, who has made border security his key issue, trails Giffords among voters who say immigration is important to them in this election.

Giffords also leads in the district's rural areas — Cochise, Pinal and Santa Cruz countries — where Graf has enjoyed popularity among Republicans.

The poll reveals a sharp gender gap. Nearly 57 percent of women support Giffords, with 46 percent of men going for Graf. About 13 percent of both men and women are undecided.

When asked what the most important issue is in deciding whom to vote for, "border control/immigration" is the run-away leader, with nearly 46 percent saying that's what's most on their minds when it comes to this race.

That's more than four times the next-most frequent response, the war in Iraq, cited by 10.7 percent of voters. Experience was next at 8.5 percent. Health care with 7.2 percent and education with 5.8 percent are at the bottom of the list.

When voters were asked to rate the overall importance of a list of issues, immigration again finished on top with 82.3 percent rating it important or very important, followed by the war on terror with 82.2 percent considering it important or very important and the war in Iraq at 81.3 percent.

Control of Congress, the economy and health care were also rated important or very important by a solid majority of voters. Of the seven issues listed, only gay marriage failed to strike a chord with a majority of voters, at 43.4 percent.

Carol Zimmerman, a long-time local Democratic consultant who ran the Star-sponsored poll, said her advice to Graf would be to make the election less about Giffords and more about keeping Democrats from winning control of Congress.

"I'd go right back to my Republican base and say, 'It's all about keeping control of Congress, and Republicans, you have to stay the course.' And I would try to find a way to appeal to them," Zimmerman said.

She also said that although Giffords' numbers are high, she cautions against calling the Democrat "popular," especially among Republican crossover voters.

"I don't know that they're saying, 'Oh, I just love her.' I think they're saying, 'I don't like him,' " Zimmerman said.

McLeod said he's not surprised by Giffords' approval rating on the immigration issue, but Judi White, chairwoman of the Pima County Republican Party, said she still thinks Graf "owns it" despite the poll results.

Zimmerman said that for Giffords, the key is turnout and holding her base, since Demo-crats are outnumbered in District 8 and tend to turn out in smaller numbers.

"Stay the course. Don't make a mistake," Zimmerman said. "It's hers to lose and there's still a lot of time to go, and being complacent would be the worst mistake."