Sun, Jul 05, 2009

Business

Got cash? It might be time to buy a home

Realty agents say next six months are a special window of opportunity
By Josh Brodesky
arizona daily star
Tucson, Arizona | Published: 12.28.2008
No matter what the economy is like, some real estate agents say it's a good time to buy — even if it isn't. But this time you might want to listen.
For buyers with good credit and money to put down, the next six months or so could present a unique window of opportunity.
With interest rates at historic lows and home prices in Tucson falling to roughly what they were in 2004, now may be the time to consider buying a home.
"Right now is probably the best time we have had for buyers, as far as the convergence of prices, interest rates and the number of properties to choose from," said Martin Eggers, an agent with Desert Roadrunner Realty.
"The window, I think, will be relatively short-lived. Interest rates I don't foresee staying low like this forever, and then the next part of the equation is once people realize it is such a good time to buy, they are going to start buying," he said.
The Tucson Association of Realtors recently reported the median sale price in November was $178,000, a level last seen back in November 2004 and January 2005 when it weighed in at $177,000. But figures from the Tucson Association of Realtors do not include foreclosures, which made up a large portion of resales last month.
Throw foreclosures into the mix and the median for resale homes in November was about $170,000, said John Strobeck, owner of Bright Future Business Consultants, which publishes monthly and annual housing data for Pima County.
"Everybody wants to wait for the bottom," Strobeck said. "We are not going to know the bottom until it passes. We are looking right now at prices that are the lowest they've been in virtually four or five years, and we have interest rates that have been as low as they have been in that period of time."
About those interest rates: 30-year, fixed interest rates have been hovering around 5.2 percent, the lowest level in nearly 40 years.
The drop hasn't gone unnoticed by homeowners looking to refinance or potential buyers.
"Absolutely, Wells Fargo has seen a huge increase in inquiries for mortgages (and refinancing) over the last several weeks," said Melissa Triano Walsh, a branch manager with Wells Fargo Home Mortgage, 3709 N. Campbell Ave. "I think our property values have gotten a little more realistic over the last couple months, and I think it's an ideal situation to buy a home in Tucson."
When Susan and Robert Riendl sold their house two years ago, prices in Tucson were so high the couple decided to rent rather than rush into another home.
They didn't expect to rent for so long, but home prices kept falling, so the Riendls stayed on the sidelines until this October when they bought a three-bedroom patio home in the Foot-hills for $330,000.
"Our house sold so quickly, we didn't want to hurry into something or buy something we didn't want," said Susan Riendl, an account and financial planner. "So, we just kept looking till we found something that we liked. It happened to be the right timing for it. The price was right."
For Riendl, the low interest rates were a nice perk for buying in the current market, but price was the motivation.
"We had a significant amount down because we sold a much larger home," she said. "So price was our biggest deal, more than interest (rates)."
In many ways, Riendl embodies the type of buyer who could do well in the current market. She put 30 percent down to buy her home, and with the kids grown up, she and her husband plan to live in their home for the long haul.
In that sense, the opportunity to buy is much different from, say, three years ago when people were financing homes with no money down or relying on interest-only loans with the idea of flipping their homes.
"We had a short period there where people were able to buy, and six months later were able to flip it and make money," said Eggers, of Desert Roadrunner Realty. "That wasn't a long period, but it's become a very huge myth."
To Russell Long, vice president of Long Realty Co., the next six months are crucial to Tucson's real estate market. If things don't pick up during winter and spring, it could be a very long, hot summer for real estate in Tucson.
"Over the next six months, the local buyers are here," he said. "When they go on vacation, that impacts the market."
And while there are plenty of bargains at the low end of the market, Long said high-end builders are also working hard to clear inventory. The Residences at Ritz-Carlton, Dove Mountain, for example, is offering discounts on its multimillion-dollar homes ranging from $87,500 to $175,000. Plenty of builders saddled with speculation homes are offering cut-rate deals, too.
"There is a plethora of builder properties out there, and those guys are doing deals and are very motivated to get rid of their inventory to pay off construction loans to end their debt service," Long said.
All of this sounds good for potential buyers, but University of Arizona economist Marshall Vest said it's important to remember all the caveats out there, especially since he expects the recession to continue for at least another year and for the Tucson economy to lose thousands more jobs.
"If you have a job, and if you have good credit, and you can come up with a down payment, and if you have sufficient income to amortize the mortgage, now is a great time to buy," Vest said. "Mortgage rates are low, and there are some really good deals out there."
● Contact reporter Josh Brodesky at 573-4178 or jbrodesky@azstarnet.com.