Last Update: November 11, 2001
November 11, 2001
Citywide strategy won for GOP
Dunbar worked precincts east of Alvernon.
Ronstadt lost neighborhood, won citywide.
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Early-vote push, emphasis on East Side helped overcome Demos' registration lead
By Joe Salkowski
ARIZONA DAILY STAR
There could be any number of reasons why Republicans Fred Ronstadt and Kathleen Dunbar won Tucson City Council races in a town where voter registration is tilted three to two against them.
It might have been the record-setting numbers of early votes or the low Election Day turnout, or both. Perhaps it was the big money spent by GOP-backed independent groups or the coattails of a politically popular mayor. Maybe they were just the better candidates.
But a review of returns from Tuesday's election reveals one simple truth for local Democrats: They can't win city elections if they lose in places like the Corbett neighborhood.
The area bounded by Wilmot and Craycroft Roads between Golf Links Road and 22nd Street is populated by working-class residents, first-time home buyers and retirees living in apartment complexes or houses that can still be had for under $100,000.
The neighborhood also has plenty of Democrats - just about 1,050 at last count, compared with about 700 Republicans and 400 independents. Corbett is home to three of 39 Democratic precincts in Wards 2 and 4, which cover the city's growing East and Southeast Sides.
Last Tuesday, Democratic council candidates Gayle Hartmann and Paula Aboud should have had a good chance to win the vote in most of those precincts or, at the very least, split them with Ronstadt and Dunbar. Instead, the Republicans won them all - including Corbett.
"I don't know exactly why it happened," said John Soltero, a Corbett resident and Democratic precinct committeeman who once served as chairman of the Pima County Democratic Party. "It seems to me these are working people. I just can't understand it."
Those victories allowed Dunbar and Ronstadt to win office despite losing the majority of votes in heavily Democratic precincts in the heart of the city. Indeed, both Republicans lost the majority of votes in the wards they will represent on the council. Ronstadt even lost his own neighborhood, the only precinct east of Craycroft that went Democratic.
"It doesn't matter where your votes come from," said Ronstadt, who also lost his ward when he first won the Midtown Ward 6 seat four years ago. "We're not pandering to one group instead of the other. The system makes sure the decisions we make are based on what's best for all of Tucson."
Dunbar said she's proud she came within 15 percentage points of Aboud among voters in North Side Ward 3, where Democrats hold a nearly two-to-one registration edge over Republicans. But her focus during the campaign, she said, was on trying to win every precinct east of Alvernon Way.
"We worked them very hard," she said. "I had a huge machine of people working for me."
Dunbar focused particular attention on two of Corbett's three precincts, which were highlighted in yellow on a multicolored map that hung on the wall of her den during the campaign. "Yellow means they'll vote Republican if you give them a reason," she said.
Relying on the local Republican Party to call GOP voters, she focused her attention on the Democrats. Her campaign volunteers called registered Democrats and asked them to support Dunbar, running down a list of her endorsements and offering to mail out more information if they were interested.
Soltero, meanwhile, said Democratic Party volunteers "walked" his precinct, visiting voters and encouraging them to turn out and vote for Hartmann and Aboud. But Aboud said her primary campaign against Vicki Hart left her with too little time to campaign in East Side neighborhoods, where voter turnout is usually higher than in the rest of the city.
"We were trying to focus on Wards 2 and 4 for sure," she said. "We had some forums and neighborhood functions out there, but there wasn't a lot of walk time. That's the problem with running a citywide election."
Mary Dailey, president of the Corbett Neighborhood Association, said her Democratic neighbors might have stayed home Tuesday. Just one in four Corbett voters turned out to vote, a figure matched by the rest of the city.
"When I went over to vote, there was nobody there I knew," said Dailey, a Democrat. "I did send out a message by e-mail and on our Web site reminding people to vote. It's too bad people didn't take more interest in it."
It's also possible Aboud and Hartmann lost votes in this working-class neighborhood by spending so much time criticizing the Republicans' loyalty to business interests. Corbett resident Sandra Foley, a lifelong Democrat who recently joined the Republican Party, said council candidates should be focused on bringing better-paying jobs to town.
"With the council the way it was, Tucson wasn't getting anywhere," she said, referring to the Democrat-led councils that preceded Republican Mayor Bob Walkup's 1999 election. "I think Mayor Walkup is doing an admirable job."
David Bradley, chairman of the Pima County Democratic Party, said Republicans did a good job of portraying Aboud and Hartmann as overly liberal candidates. That effort was aided by two independent groups that spent more than $100,000 on ad campaigns and other efforts targeting the two Democrats.
But he said the deciding factor in the Corbett neighborhood was the same as anywhere else in the city. "Republicans did a good job of getting their voters out," he said. "Democrats did not."
It didn't help that Councilman Steve Leal ran unopposed in South Side Ward 5 after defeating fellow Democrat Jesse Lugo in the Sept. 11 primary. Had Leal faced a general election opponent, voters in his heavily Democratic ward might have turned out in greater numbers and helped Aboud and Hartmann. Instead, the ward's 4,594 votes were the fewest cast in any ward, dwarfed by the 13,788 ballots submitted in Republican-heavy Ward 2.
Even so, Hartmann and Aboud actually won more votes than Ronstadt and Dunbar on ballots cast Tuesday. But that Election Day turnout couldn't overcome the Republican Party's dramatic edge in early voting. Republicans requested about twice as many early ballots as Democrats, giving their candidates leads that proved insurmountable.
The local Republican Party mailed out early ballot requests to every eligible GOP voter and followed up with phone calls urging that they be filled out. Bradley said Democrats couldn't afford such an effort. In future races, though, the party can't afford not to court early voters, he said.
"You've got to get a lot of up-front dough, but it's not exactly rocket science," he said. "It's hammering away at that early vote, with enough mailers and enough resources to follow up with those voters three, four or five times. That's basically what we've got to do to win these local races."
Soltero predicted that Democrats would learn from their mistakes and find a way to win the hearts - and votes - of residents in neighborhoods like Corbett. "It's just that we have to work a little bit harder," he said. "This is a wake- up call for Democrats in this city."
* Contact Joe Salkowski at 573-4243 or at joes@azstarnet.com.
November 10, 2001
Dunbar, Ronstadt win on 'early' votes
By Joe Salkowski
ARIZONA DAILY STAR
Republicans Fred Ronstadt and Kathleen Dunbar secured Tucson City Council seats Friday after a belated tally of "early" votes gave them insurmountable leads over their Democratic rivals.
With about 1,000 ballots still uncounted, Ronstadt holds a 2,418-vote lead over Democrat Gayle Hartmann, assuring him of a second term in the Midtown Ward 6 office. Dunbar, a former state lawmaker, will take over the North Side Ward 3 office after surging to a 3,083-vote lead over Democrat Paula Aboud.
Councilman Steve Leal was unopposed in South Side Ward 5 after defeating fellow Democrat Jesse Lugo in the Sept. 11 primary election.
The votes tabulated Friday were 2,040 so-called "early" ballots mailed to voters and returned to polling places on Election Day. A record 20,590 voters cast early ballots, representing nearly 40 percent of the 52,505 votes counted so far.
City Clerk Kathy Detrick said voters should become accustomed to waiting days to learn the outcome of close elections if early ballots continue to grow in popularity, because they take longer to verify and count.
The votes left to be counted are so-called questioned ballots, including those cast by voters who showed up at the wrong polling place. Election workers will verify and tabulate those ballots over the weekend, and final results will be presented Tuesday to the City Council.
November 8, 2001
Ronstadt, Dunbar: not a done deal
By Joe Salkowski
ARIZONA DAILY STAR
Republicans Fred Ronstadt and Kathleen Dunbar might have to wait until next week before their apparent victories in two Tucson City Council races become official.
About 2,900 votes remain uncounted from Tuesday's election, including roughly 2,000 "early" ballots that were dropped off at polling places on Election Day rather than submitted by mail. Election officials also must verify about 900 so-called question ballots, including those cast by voters who arrived at the wrong polling place.
City Clerk Kathy Detrick said she hopes to tally about 1,500 of those outstanding votes by Friday afternoon. The rest should be counted before Tuesday, when the mayor and council are set to make the results official.
Ronstadt holds a 1,705-vote lead over Democrat Gayle Hartmann in his bid to win a second term representing Midtown Ward 6. Dunbar holds a 2,303-vote lead over Democrat Paula Aboud in North Side Ward 3. Democratic Councilman Steve Leal was unopposed in South Side Ward 5.
Although it's mathematically possible that votes on those uncounted ballots could give the election to the Democrats, it isn't likely to happen. Dunbar would need just 598 of 2,900 uncounted votes - about 20 percent - to be assured of victory. Ronstadt would need 1,196 votes, or about 40 percent of the remaining vote.
Hartmann has conceded she won't likely catch up, but Aboud is holding out hope for a miraculous swing in her favor. Although Republicans requested far more early ballots than Democrats, some Aboud supporters had convinced themselves that early ballots submitted at polling places Tuesday were likely filled out by procrastinating Democrats.
Detrick said the delay in tallying final results can be attributed to a record number of early ballots, which take longer to process and verify than votes cast at ballot boxes. About 20,000 city voters cast early ballots this year, easily surpassing the previous record of 15,133 in the 1999 election.
"Early voting is a great convenience to the public. So from our perspective, if it encourages people to vote, that's great," Detrick said. "But it may be an adjustment for voters to realize that they won't have immediate results."
The heavy load of early ballots contrasted with the dismal turnout at polling places. Just 21 percent of eligible city voters participated in Tuesday's election, a figure Detrick said was disappointing.
* Contact Joe Salkowski at 573-4243 or at joes@azstarnet.com.
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