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Jorgensen Brooks Group Counselor Mechanical Komatsu Equipment Co Resident Field Mechanic Administrative & Professional Tucson Urban League CEO/President Finance and Accounting Charles E. Gillman Company Accounting Specialist Trades/Construction RANCHO RESORT MAINTANANCE POSITION Sales and Marketing Everready Glass Sales Reps BusinessChuck Jaffe: Market unnerving? Give your fund portfoilio a stress testTucson, Arizona | Published: 08.01.2008
The experts said: "Don't worry, even though we're a bit concerned with history."
They could have been investment pros talking about how to act in the current, nerve- jangling market, but, in my case, it was my doctors, suggesting that I take a stress test.
No big deal, really. The annual physical had showed me to be in fine shape, except for my weight (again), but the family history warranted some concern and examination.
It's a good parallel for what investors have been facing in the stock market.
That's precisely why investors should give their fund portfolio a stress test.
In this case, it's a phalanx of questions, a self-examination to determine if your mutual fund portfolio can and should withstand the stress the market is generating.
Here are questions to ask:
● Have I reached my goals?
One big reason for change is that your mutual funds have done their job and you are at or near your goals. Most people let their portfolio keep running, but if you worry that market conditions will leave you farther from your goals a few years from now, then it may be time to turn your focus from creating wealth to preserving it.
Your changes won't necessarily involve dumping specific funds, so much as reallocating the portfolio and changing some of the focus from growth to income.
● What's the plan?
Just as it's hard to lose weight without having a plan for getting it done, so should investors recognize that people who "wing it" get queasy more readily than those who follow a designed route to wealth.
Says Christine Benz, director of mutual fund research at Morningstar: "You should make moves because they help you reach your goals, and not just because they calm your nerves. … If you don't have a plan, the big change to make in your portfolio is to get one."
● Have my funds changed?
Part of any stress test is determining weaknesses, even when someone appears to be the picture of health. If market moves have you contemplating portfolio changes, examine the funds closely. If the only thing scaring you is recent price fluctuations, the prescribed medicine will be inaction.
If, however, the fund has changed — perhaps it has grown wildly, the manager quit or performance has dropped considerably — then it may be time to experience the medicinal purposes of change.
● Would I buy these funds again today?
You bought each fund for a reason, maybe to get into a hot asset category, maybe to diversify, or possibly because it had a good track record and rating. If those factors evaporate over time and you can honestly say that you would not buy something again today, then you know why your stress level is high.
One telltale sign that this has happened is when you stop making additional investments to the fund and can't see yourself investing more money under any market conditions. It's one thing to stop investing because you want to tilt your portfolio in a different direction, but if you're cutting the fund off forever, you're also shining a light on what's bugging you when the market gets jumpy.
● When the market gets bloody, are you losing drops or pints?
When there is carnage in the market, don't just look at your account, but compare your funds to peers. If your international fund recently has been acting like an emerging markets fund, it's telling you the way the fund is drifting; if you don't want to go in that direction, pick funds that more closely represent the asset class you want to discover.
● What information do I really have?
Just because the market is crazed, that doesn't mean you have to be. The mere idea of "needing a stress test" is enough to make some people nervous that their health must be failing.
"The day-to-day volatility of a fund has very little information on wealth creation," says Brian Posner, CEO at ClearBridge Advisors. "It may make you nervous, but it doesn't tell you much about how you're really doing and what will happen in the long term. You have to keep that in mind when the market is having a few bad days."
● Chuck Jaffe is senior columnist for Marketwatch. He can be reached at jaffe@ marketwatch.com or P.O. Box 70, Cohasset, MA 02025-0070.
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