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The slowdown in Tucson's new-home market is far from over and may not turn around until 2010, a major local developer said at a conference Wednesday.

Don Diamond, chairman of Diamond Ventures, spoke to an audience of about 300 planning, development and real estate representatives at an event held by the Urban Land Institute's Arizona District Council at the Tucson Marriott University Park.

"We're going to have to forget about 2008," he said. "I think 2009 will show the bottom, but not come up from the bottom."

Diamond said he expects the volume of new-home permits to fall to about 4,000 next year, down from a peak of nearly 12,000 during the boom years.

He provided that forecast in a keynote presentation with Steve Betts, president and CEO of Tempe-based SunCor Development Co.

Diamond and Betts said builders were partly at fault for the overproduction of housing, and they expect lenders will shy away from providing builders with funding for large-scale developments. Builders will instead have to work with local development experts to plan future projects, they said.

"We've had a lot of corrections because of speculation in the market, and that's not good," Diamond said. "This time the builders are the speculators."

However, Diamond and Betts said they believe the state's economy will remain resilient, and the market will pick up speed eventually.

Little was mentioned about the slowdown during the rest of the conference, which focused on long-term projections in the Tucson metro area, particularly in outlying areas.

Presenters discussed concerns related to future growth, such as dwindling available land and future strains on the transportation system and the water supply.

Will White of land brokerage firm Land Advisors Organization and Andy Gunning, planning director for the Pima Association of Governments, said a loop-like thoroughfare system will likely be necessary in the future to link far-flung communities.

Zoning changes encouraging higher-density development may also be needed in the future, some presenters said.

"We need to start talking vertical — a different style of suburbia," said Arlan Colton, a Pima County planning official.

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