Sun, Jul 05, 2009

Business

Home-price rise in Arizona slows for third quarter

By Howard Fischer
Capitol Media Services
Tucson, Arizona | Published: 12.01.2006
PHOENIX — The chill in the air is not just from the weather.
New figures from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight show a definite cooling of home prices in Arizona; they increased by just a hair over 1 percent in the third quarter of this year. That is close to a third of the rate of increase for the previous three months.
Tucson prices roughly matched the statewide increase.
Even with that, the average home price in Arizona still is up close to 16.4 percent over the same time last year. That was good enough to put the state fourth-highest in the nation, behind Idaho, Utah and Oregon.
But it still marks a decline: Three months ago — before the latest chill in the market — the state was at the top of that list with a 24 percent year-over-year price increase.
The Arizona numbers still beat the national average. Quarter-over-quarter prices for the entire country were up less than 0.9 percent; for the year the difference was just 7.7 percent.
The statistics reflect how much the values of existing homes have appreciated. The agency tracks average price changes in repeat sales and refinancings of the same single-family properties, using statistics from mortgage transactions.
Agency director James Lockhart said the newest figures confirm what those released three months ago only began to suggest.
"With U.S. house prices growing less than 1 percent during the third quarter, it provides more evidence that the long-forecasted national deceleration in house prices is occurring," he said.
Lockhart said that is "not unexpected," given that home prices over the five years prior to this quarter went up 56.8 percent nationwide — and nearly doubled in Arizona.
"There are still some areas where appreciation rates remain very high," Lockhart said. "But now they are the exception rather than the norm."
One of those areas is Flagstaff. Prices increased nearly 3 percent in the last quarter and by close to 22 percent since the same time last year — the seventh-highest rate in the nation.
By contrast, home prices in the Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale area for the third quarter of 2006 were up less than 0.8 percent over the prior quarter.
That is a dramatic slowdown: Home prices went up by nearly 3 percent in the prior quarter.
A similar situation exists in Tucson, which managed to post a 1 percent rise in the last quarter versus nearly 3.3 percent the prior quarter.
The Prescott area did somewhat better, with home prices going up close to 1.6 percent in the last quarter. That actually beat the figures from the prior quarter.
But the slowdown is hitting here, too: Its year-over-year increase immediately prior to this quarter was more than 19 percent.
No quarter-over-quarter figures are available for the Yuma area. But home prices there in the last year are up close to 15 percent.
The continued increase in Flagstaff is bad news for those hoping to find affordable housing in the area, according to Helen Hudgens Ferrell. She is the executive director of Both Hands Inc., which deals with housing and shelter issues.
"I was certainly hoping it would cool down like the rest of the state and the country," she said.
The problem, said Hudgens Ferrell, is land — the lack of it. She said the community is more or less landlocked, with little available private land on its boundaries for new homes.
At the same time, she said, those who can afford homes want big ones on large lots. That means lower-density development of the property available.
And complicating the problem of available housing for Flagstaff residents is that perhaps a quarter of the houses are second homes for those living elsewhere.
Hudgens Ferrell said the situation is hurting the rest of the community, as working people can't afford to live there.
She said a recent job fair had 800 openings but only 500 applicants.
"That kind of thing is just incredible," Hudgens Ferrell said. "How can people run a business when you can't get people to come to work because they can't afford a place to live?"
She said some firms have even taken to hiring buses to bring in workers from Winslow, where homes are more affordable.