FLOWERS, RIEGER & ASSOCIATES TAX STAFF Sales and Marketing EVER-READY GLASS SALES REPS BusinessForeclosures push down your home's selling priceAppraisers now being forced to rely on depressed valuations in some areas
Arizona Daily Star
Tucson, Arizona | Published: 06.01.2008
Think you know what your house is worth? You might want to take a deep breath and think again.
The rising number of foreclosures is reducing property values in a possibly unprecedented way.
Not only are foreclosed properties flooding the market, but they are also becoming the only standard of comparison for other homes sold in some areas.
Appraisers typically ignore foreclosures in property valuations, but now in some areas they have no choice but to use them.
Christina Baldwin, of Burdick Residential Appraisals, said she's seen some ZIP codes "where every comparative property is a foreclosure."
Those areas are typically in new-home developments on the outskirts of town or on the South Side, appraisers said.
Foreclosed properties usually are not included in appraisals because they are considered under "duress" and not reflective of fair market value, said Bruce Smith, of Equity Valuation Services.
However, "when those become predominant in the neighborhood, then they become the market," Smith said.
Appraisers are even more likely to use foreclosures in figuring value now because of tighter standards from lenders.
Many lenders are asking appraisers to look back only three months instead of six for comparable sales, appraisers said.
Nearly 14 percent of existing houses sold in the Tucson area in April were repossessed by lenders, according to the Southern Arizona Housing Market Letter published by market consultant John Strobeck.
The market share for foreclosures is likely much higher in Pinal County.
Casa Grande real estate broker Bill Bridwell said about 90 percent of sales he has handled recently have been bank-owned homes.
In the past, foreclosed homes have made up just a small portion of the market, real estate professionals said.
Fred Brodsky, director of the Brodsky School of Real Estate, said the number of foreclosures in the market is unusual, even for a downturn.
"I've been through three cycles, but I've never it seen it this bad," he said.
Up 40 percent from March
Strobeck said the higher incidence of sales of foreclosed homes is mainly because there are simply more foreclosures.
Last month, foreclosure filings in Tucson were up about 40 percent from March and more than 80 percent from April 2007, according to data firm RealtyTrac.
The trend will probably continue as more waves of adjustable-rate mortgages reset, causing mortgage payments to spike, Strobeck said.
"It's one of those things we have to do to get back to a 'normal' market," Strobeck said.
Many buyers in the market are also looking only for bargains, real estate agents said. Some buyers ask specifically for foreclosures, they said.
"Everybody wants to get a really, really low price for a house," said Century 21 agent Al Pesqueira.
In comparison, other houses on the market often seem overpriced, agents said.
"A lot of stuff out there isn't going to sell," said George Cardieri, an agent with Tierra Antigua Realty.
Orlando Amaya, a nurse from Spain, recently bought a foreclosed house in Midvale Park, near West Irvington Road and Interstate 19 for about $110,000.
The lender initially asked more than $150,000 for the 1,600-square-foot house, he said.
Amaya already owned a smaller house across the street and wasn't planning to buy another house, but the foreclosure was a "real good buy," he said.
Prices still going down
Housing prices in Tucson have already started to fall after a prolonged sales slump. But rising numbers of foreclosures will likely push those prices down farther, according to the Pew Charitable Trusts.
The organization reported that more than 60 percent of Arizona homeowners will see their property values drop as a result of foreclosures.
The organization predicts that one out of every 18 homes in the state will end up in foreclosure because of high-cost loans.
The high number of foreclosure sales is necessary "to clean up the mortgage lending excesses of the past few years" said Marshall Vest, director of the Economic and Business Research Center at the University of Arizona's Eller College of Management.
"All these properties are going to need to be marked down and find new owners before this correction process is complete," Vest said.
● Contact reporter Christie Smythe at 434-4083 or csmythe@azstarnet.com.
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