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UA represented
Not only did Jonathan Overpeck cite the work of other UA researchers, there are other speakers representing UA at the American Association for the Advancement of Science's Annual Meeting in Chicago.
Other UA faculty members who will be presenting this weekend are Regents Professor Vicki Chandler, on "Epigenetic Silencing Across Generations?"; Biosphere 2 director Travis Huxman, on the "Future of the Sonoran Desert"; and professor Michael Sanderson, on "Computational Challenges in Building the Phylogeny of Plants."
Overpeck's forecast
Although Overpeck expressed that there are uncertainties, many of the consequences associated with global warming that scientists have predicted are already occurring, especially in regions like the Southwest, he said.
Major impacts of climate change, according to Overpeck, include:
• An increased chance of extreme drought, especially in regions such as the Southwest.
• Major landscape disturbances such as forest fires will likely become routine.
• There will be a need for society to become more careful managing its resources — climate change could me much more dramatic than expected.
About the reporter
Evan Pellegrino is a NASA Space Grant intern at the Arizona Daily Star. He is reporting from the AAAS's Annual Meeting as a student journalist with the National Association of Science Writers.
The meeting is one of the largest scientific conferences in the world.
Thousands of participants have gathered for symposia, seminars and workshops, as well as plenary and topical lectures by some of the world's leading scientists and engineers.

Tucson Region

Expect climate 'surprises,' UA expert says

By Evan Pellegrino
Arizona Daily Star
Tucson, Arizona | Published: 02.14.2009
CHICAGO — It's time to expect the unexpected.
The director of UA's Institute for Environment and Society issued the warning Friday with two other experts during a symposium to address climate change.
The debate on why the world is warming has ended, according to the presenting scientists. Now that it's established that humans at least partially responsible, they say, it's critical to focus on how climate change might affect life in the 21st century and what can be done to manage the impacts.
But while society anticipates changes, it must also be aware that the predictions are shrouded with uncertainties and likely underestimated, the scientists said.
"Be prepared for surprises," said Jonathan Overpeck, director of the University of Arizona's Institute for Environment and Society, one of three speakers at the symposium, titled "Global Change and Paleoecology: Ecological Responses to Environmental Change."
Although scientists can forecast potential effects of climate change, such as sea-level and temperature rises, there are also unknowns and degrees of uncertainty in model projections, he said.
"There's no spirit of ecosystem's future to tell us what will happen," Stephen Jackson, director of the University of Wyoming's department of botany, said during the symposium. However, he added that "ghosts of ecosystems past" do provide scientists with evidence of potential impacts.
"The good news is that climate change is nothing new. It's part of the world we live in," he said.
But the bad news is that a time of climate change is not a good time to be around, Jackson said.
There will be winners and losers, he said, meaning that the changes will be good for some species and bad for others.
As far as what species will benefit and what species will lose, there are "no guarantees," he said.
Although climate variation is not unique to our planet, human activities have intensified its impact and, thus, its consequences, they said.
Stacking human activity on natural variation will likely have grave ecological impacts, including the extinction of species that have survived climate change in the past.
"We're facing major obstacles," said Jason McLachlan, assistant professor at Notre Dame's department of biological sciences.
McLachlan offered a simple yet powerful metaphor about the threat of global warming's impact and what needs to be addressed.
Climate change is like an oncoming train, he said.
On the train's tracks are babies in carriages, representing aspects of ecology that are in danger of being struck.
What society must now focus on is evaluating what resources and species are most at risk and develop strategies to get them farther down or off the track, he said.
"But keep in mind we're driving the train," he added.
He noted that humans influence the train, but said that at this point, the world has already committed itself to climate change and must face it challenges even if our species were to stop contributing.
High levels of carbon dioxide produced by humans will have a long lifetime in the atmosphere, said Overpeck.
"We can't magically cool the Earth down," he said, foreshadowing that impacts will persist for hundreds to thousands of years into the future.
"What we're talking about is for keeps."
Contact NASA Space Grant intern Evan Pellegrino at 573-4195 or at epellegrino@azstarnet.com.
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