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PHOENIX — The number of new jobless claims in Arizona hit 30,000 in October, the first time that's happened in three decades.

And that portends even higher state unemployment figures in the months to come.

The Department of Commerce reported Friday the state's jobless rate shot up another two-tenths of a point, hitting 6.1 percent. That rate has not been seen since late 2002 as the state was finally starting to recover from the economic hit after the September 2001 terrorist attacks.

Similar 0.2 percentage point increases were recorded in the Phoenix and Tucson metropolitan areas. In the Tucson metro area, which comprises all of Pima County, the unemployment rate rose to 5.8 percent in October, up from 5.6 percent the previous month and 3.9 percent in October 2007.

And Dennis Doby, the agency's senior director of labor market information, said he expects things to get worse in Arizona before they get better.

Doby said the experts consulted by his department are predicting the national jobless rate will peak between 8 percent and 8.5 percent. He said that means the Arizona rate, which generally lags the national figure by a couple of months, easily should reach 8 percent.

You have to go back to 1983 to find a number that high in Arizona.

The parallels go beyond that.

Doby reported that the total number of people employed in Arizona declined by 70,900 in the last year, a drop of 2.6 percent. The last time that happened, he said, was in 1982.

"We expect those trends to continue," he said.

The weakness showed up in pretty much all segments of the state economy.

Of particular note is that the number of people employed in the retail trade dropped by 100 from September to October. Doby said that, under normal circumstances, the seasonal shopping should boost retail trade by 1,700 a month.

Here, too, Doby sees no bright spot.

"With what we see with businesses announcing expansion plans being put on hold and consumers certainly not spending, the announcement of numerous midlevel retailers having trouble attracting consumers, it looks like it's going to be a fairly weak Christmas for hiring," he said.

And for sales as well, Doby continued.

"I've seen predictions that sales for this Christmas will be below what they were in the past years," he said. "From what we're seeing with consumer spending, it doesn't look good."

That same trend is playing out in the hospitality industry.

The number of people employed by hotels and motels actually did increase by 1,000, over September. But that figure, Doby said, is less than it has been in prior years.

And employment in the food-service industry, including restaurants, is down by 600 month-to-month, and 8,800 below what it was a year earlier.

That, he said, means people eating out less — and going to less-expensive places when they do dine out.

"Consumers seem to be looking for the choices that provide the lowest cost," Doby said. "They are looking for discounts."

The new figures do not include the effect of recently announced layoffs at Honeywell Aerospace and Freeport McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc.