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Premiums for Medicare drug coverage will rise an average 24 percent for elderly and disabled Americans who stay in their current plans next year, according to a health-care research firm.

The increase follows a 21 percent rise this year, according to Avalere Health LLC, a Washington firm that analyzed data released Thursday by Medicare. The 10 largest drug plans raised premiums from 8 percent for UnitedHealth Group Inc.'s AARP MedicareRx Saver to 64 percent for Humana Inc.'s PDP Enhanced plan, Avalere said.

Humana and other health insurers have cited inaccurate forecasting of drug costs for this year's plans in reducing their 2008 profit goals. The average premiums for one of Humana's plans, PDP Standard, have quadrupled since Medicare started drug coverage in 2006, Avalere said. While seniors tend to stick with the same plan over time, the survey shows the need to shop around, said Lindsey Spindle, Avalere's vice president.

"For many years people said, `I'm going to stay put,' because it can be a difficult, daunting experience to pick a drug plan," Spindle said in a telephone interview. "But based on what we see, now would be a very good time to see that their plan meets their medical and financial needs."

The calculations were weighted to reflect varying enrollments and prices of plans in 34 regions, according to Avalere.

Monthly premiums next year for the 10 largest plans by enrollment will range from $27.31 to $40.83. The national monthly premium for the basic Medicare drug benefit in 2009 will average about $28, the government said Thursday.

Medicare drug plans cover 16.1 million Americans who take the benefit through a standalone policy rather than a comprehensive managed-care plan known as Medicare Advantage. Insurers receive payments from Medicare and monthly premiums from beneficiaries for providing the plans.

Millions of elderly Americans are "living better lives" because of the drug benefit, said Kerry Weems, the acting administrator of the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services, on a conference call with reporters. Surveys show high levels of satisfaction among consumers, and the program has come in under budget, he said.

The government plans to spend $36 billion on the drug plans this year, less than it originally projected. Medicare attributed the savings to wider use of generic drugs, which cost less than the brand-name versions they copy.

For 2009, "average premiums are still lower than originally estimated, and this is a competitive market," Weems said in an e-mailed response to an inquiry about the Avalere findings. He said 97 percent of enrollees will be able to choose 2009 plans with premiums at this year's rate or less.

Humana spokesman Tom Noland said the price increases since 2006 reflect the company's "actual costs" of providing benefits.

"While Humana will no longer offer the lowest-priced Part D plan in 2009, we're confident that consumers will appreciate the additional benefits and value of our products and services," Noland said in an e-mail.

The 10 largest drug plans account for 61 percent of participants, and the three largest have 35 percent of the market.