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PHOENIX — The growth in wagering at Arizona's tribal casinos appears to be slowing, and that may be a long-term trend, if one expert is right.

A study being released this morning says state tribes took in more than $2 billion in gaming revenues in 2007. That is 4.9 percent more than the prior year.

And, using some rough projections, that translates out to a total handle — the amount of money being wagered — somewhere in the $10 billion range.

But Alan Meister, who prepared the Indian Gaming Industry Report for Casino City Press, noted that Arizona managed to post a 13.4 percent increase between 2005 and 2006, and 13.8 percent the year before.

Meister, an economist with Analysis Group, said some of the slowdown in Arizona is reflective of the national economy.

The figures, however, show that the situation in this state may be a bit different than elsewhere. Arizona's year-over-year growth for the two prior years was the 11th highest in the nation; for 2007 it was only 17th.

And there are indications that things are getting worse this year: Recently released figures from the Arizona Gaming Department show the amount of revenue the tribes are sharing with the state actually declined in the second quarter of this year, compared with the same quarter the year before.

Wendell Long, chief executive of Sol Casinos, operated by the Pascua Yaqui Tribe, said the year-over-year increase of 4.9 percent should not come as a surprise.

"It's standard business cycle," he said. Long said that tribal gaming, which is less than two decades old in Arizona, grew rapidly.

"And now it's leveling off," Long said. "You can't continue on . . . with even 15 percent growth forever."

And with the amount being wagered now so large, Long said, even a 5 percent increase is a lot of dollars.

The individual tribes aren't required to report their revenue to Meister, as they must to the state Gaming Department. But Meister, who has been studying the gaming industry for years, has developed both some confidential sources as well as models he has used for six prior annual reports.

The $2 billion figure represents the amount wagered in slot machines, video poker, blackjack and poker, minus what is paid out.

The pacts the tribes have with the state let them keep no more than 20 percent of what is wagered on slot machines, 17 percent for video poker and 25 percent for keno. So the real wagering figure could be closer to $10 billion — or more than $1,500 for every man, woman and child in the state — though some of that may be people simply plowing their winnings back into the same machines or games.

Meister said one factor that may be affecting Arizona gaming has been the cap on the number of gaming devices any tribe can operate. That number ranges from 475 to 1,400, depending on tribal population.

He said that limit, made part of the gaming compacts each tribe had to sign with the state, "artificially restricts the supply of Indian gaming."

That problem, however, may be alleviated: Those 2003 gaming compacts have a clause that allows the number of machines to increase every five years. For the largest tribes that figure now is 1,666.

And that's not really the cap: The gaming compacts also allow tribes to buy the rights to operate more devices from other tribes that choose not to have gaming, or which have only limited operations. That can add another 1,020 for the two largest tribes, the Tohono O'odham Nation and the Gila River Indian Community.

The result was that, at last count, the Gila River tribe was operating 2,184 slot machines at three casinos; the Tohono O'odham had 1,865.

Long, however, said he doesn't believe that's an issue.

What is becoming an issue, he said, is the economy, pointing to the figures from April through June this year — not part of Meister's latest report — which show an actual decline in gaming. That, he said, is going to require tribes to respond.

"We have to concentrate more on our core clientele now, making sure they're happy, making sure that they continue to come in," Long said.

What it also means, he said, is watching expenses: Long said a 4.9 percent increase in revenues means, in essence, a flat bottom line for tribes, what with salary increases, utilities and other costs.