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Tucson Mayor Bob Walkup told a solar energy conference Monday that he'd like to cover 1,000 acres of the city's Avra Valley land holdings with enough solar panels to generate 100 megawatts of power (100 million watts) — enough to provide electricity to more than 20,000 homes.

After the speech, Walkup said 100 megawatts is "a fairly arbitrary number."

"It's a bit of a concept, and a lot of things have to be in place before any of this makes sense," he said.

Other speakers at the Southern Arizona Solar Energy Development Conference warned that any plans for increasing solar generation in Arizona are imperiled by the looming loss of federal tax credits and utility company rebates.

Rep. Gabrielle Giffords, D-Ariz., who co-sponsored the conference with the Arizona Research Institute for Solar Energy, predicted that Congress would extend solar tax credits before adjourning this year but said the multiyear guarantee needed to plan large solar projects would probably have to wait for the next administration.

Antonia Bouchard, renewable-energy adviser to Arizona Public Service, told the gathering of elected officials, solar installers and researchers that her company's plans to build a 280-megawatt concentrated solar power plant near Gila Bend are contingent on extension of the tax credit for eight years. "It's the way this project can happen, and it won't happen without it," she said.

Eventually, speakers said, solar will make economic sense as technology improves and energy costs rise. "Solar is within three to five years of parity with fossil fuel generation," said Valerie Rauluk, CEO of Venture Catalyst, Inc., a renewable energy consultant.

For now, though, solar needs incentives, subsidies and government mandates to make economic sense.

Arizona's biggest mandate — the Corporation Commission order for utilities to generate 15 percent of their energy from renewable sources by 2025 — is in danger on two fronts, said Corporation Commissioner Bill Mundell.

The Goldwater Institute recently filed a lawsuit challenging the ACC's authority to enforce its renewable energy standard. Mundell also said an election to fill three vacancies on the commission this year could produce a majority that would reverse the order.

The city of Tucson, the University of Arizona and Davis-Monthan Air Force Base all hope to complete large solar projects this year before the credits or mandates disappear. They are seeking companies to install at least 3.1 megawatts of photovoltaic power generation and be repaid through power purchases.

Pima County also wants to contract for solar power to run the pumps at its sewer plants at Roger Road and Corona de Tucson, said Terry Finefrock, chief procurement officer. Details of that plan have yet to be worked out, he said, but the county could potentially use 3 megawatts of power at Roger Road and 1 megawatt at Corona de Tucson.

Walkup told the group that D-M, which is about to solicit bids for a solar array of 1 megawatt or more at the base, wants to eventually build a 10-to-12 megawatt system.

Walkup said he has spoken to the mayors of Sahuarita, Oro Valley, Marana and South Tucson about the plan for a "municipal solar field" on flat land the city owns in Avra Valley, right by a Tucson Electric Power transmission line.

He said any such plans depend on extension of the federal credits and the Corporation Commission mandate.

Giffords said she has pushed for solar power throughout her first congressional term because it offers a way to confront climate change and reduce dependence on oil, but, she said, "it has to make economic sense."