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The State Transportation Board should continue its studies of building highway bypasses that would siphon traffic from Interstate 10 through Tucson. Whether the bypasses actually become asphalt will be a public-policy decision and these studies will be its foundation.

The board is taking on the unpopular, but necessary, task of planning for our region's future transportation needs. The answers to the I-10 traffic problems aren't readily apparent. It is this ambiguity that makes the board's study imperative.

Highway issues are politically explosive — especially here. Opposition is often vitriolic and can disrupt a political career: In the mid-'80s a Democratic county supervisor, the late E. S. "Bud" Walker, lost his seat after he lined up with Republican members in support of a proposed Rillito-Pantano crosstown freeway. Obviously, that project was never built.

Around the same period of time another crosstown freeway plan that developed in the 1960s, the Butterfield Expressway, was morphed into the more modest Barraza-Aviation Parkway.

Too often local leaders have ducked their responsibility to lay out long-term plans that may be unpopular, but will avert problems.

"That Rillito freeway would have made a big difference, a big help, if it had been built," State Transportation Board Chairman Si Schorr noted during a meeting last week with the Star's Editorial Board.

There's ample evidence that I-10 — the only major route through Southern Arizona — is going to be maxed out within the next few decades.

For example, in 2005, about 150,000 vehicles per day (vpd) traveled through Tucson on I-10, according to the Pima Association of Governments. The new eight-lane I-10 will be able to carry 196,000 vpd, according to PAG. By 2030, the number trying to blow through here could grow to 300,000 vpd.

"Where will those additional 104,000 vehicles go?" Schorr asked.

The idea of building roads prompts more questions: Will the new roadways spawn development and generate more traffic? What will be the impact on natural areas? With gas prices steadily and rapidly increasing, how many cars will be on the road in 2030? Are alternatives being explored?

Schorr doesn't deny any of the variables, especially that last point.

"The answer really must be multi-modal — more frequent minibus service, a Phoenix-Tucson commuter rail," Schorr said. "We have to do all these things together."

Much of the traffic on I-10 through Tucson is local, so some solutions will probably involve getting residents out of cars. Perhaps by 2020 many will be riding bicycles, mopeds or scooters because of the high cost of gas. Or perhaps Tucsonans will be lured from their cars by hundreds of new, short Sun Tran routes served by eco-friendly hybrid minibuses. Tax incentives for telecommuting may spur more people to work from home.

Light rail is often mentioned as a way to alleviate traffic congestion, and both Rep. Raúl Grijalva and Rep. Gabrielle Giffords have earmarked $43 million in the federal budget for a Tucson modern streetcar/light rail system.

All those "modes" may not be enough, however, even assuming most of them become reality.

Assuming the board decides to build, Schorr noted that it would be as many as 10 years before bypass work could begin.

"Think 2025 or 2030 for completion," he said.

The bypass planning has been tabled so that several other studies can be completed in the next few months, Schorr said.

A statistically valid survey of public opinion about the various options, including the two remaining bypass possibilities, will be done, he said.

Follow-up studies are planned on "costs, benefits, consequences and environmental constraints" of continuing with current planned I-10 expansions with no bypass or adding capacity within the current right-of-way, which is narrow through Tucson, perhaps by adding a second tier of lanes, Schorr said.

"Once the studies are in hand, we will consider whether to continue with bypasses," he said.

One bypass route loops north from Willcox through the Aravaipa Valley to Casa Grande. The other swings south from Vail, across I-19 and north through the Avra Valley to Casa Grande. Proposed routes through the San Pedro Valley were dropped by the board because of the area's ecological fragility.

Addressing environmental issues along both remaining routes will be complex, Schorr said. It's possible one or both will be rejected because of these issues.

The projected cost of the bypass is $6 billion to $8 billion or more in today's dollars — again, it's too early to know. It's also too early to know where the money might come from, though Schorr said impact fees paid by developers could be one source.

The transportation board is wisely undertaking this planning years in advance, assuring itself time to identify a variety of answers to future traffic and funding questions, as well as the nimbleness to adapt plans if traffic flows change.

"Where will those additional 104,000 vehicles go?"

Si Schorr

State Transportation Board chairman