Sat, Jul 04, 2009

Tucson Region

Clinton still leads among Democrats in state, poll finds

By Howard Fischer
Capitol Media Services
Tucson, Arizona | Published: 01.23.2008
PHOENIX — Hillary Clinton is maintaining her lead among Democrats in Arizona despite Gov. Janet Napolitano endorsing her leading foe.
A new survey of 366 likely Democratic voters in the Feb. 5 primary shows the senator from New York is the choice of 30 percent of those questioned. Illinois Sen. Barack Obama is the pick of 17 percent, with former North Carolina senator John Edwards far back at 5 percent.
When pollster Bruce Merrill factors in those who are leaning toward one of the candidates, Clinton picks up 45 percent of the vote against Obama's 24 percent.
Both figures have a 5.1 percent margin of error.
Merrill said Clinton's lead is about the same as it was in October — and the same as it was before the governor's Jan. 11 endorsement of Obama. But Merrill, who conducted the survey for KAET-TV, the Phoenix PBS affiliate, after the endorsement, said the failure of Napolitano to move the numbers is no surprise.
"We have kind of a value that says, 'We don't like having other people tell us what to do anyway,' " Merrill said. He said that's why numerous studies have shown endorsements — even by a governor many Democrats admire — only help in the margins.
"Obama would prefer to have her endorsement rather than not having it," Merrill said. "But unless the race were down to a few hundred people or something, there's just little evidence that political endorsements are a big factor."
Merrill said his survey was designed mainly to test the views of the perhaps one-third of registered Democrats who are likely to go to the polls on Feb. 5. He said it's not surprising that these voters support Clinton, as they tend to be people who are older and "have worked in the party for years."
By contrast, Merrill said, Obama's support comes more from "non-traditional voters, younger voters, alienated voters."
"What that means is the higher the turnout on election day, the better the chance Obama will have because that means non-traditional voters are coming into the system," he said.
Merrill said the poll does suggest Obama is making a mistake with his new tactic of attacking former President Bill Clinton.
He pointed out that 12 percent of those who said they support Hillary Clinton said their prime reason is because they like her husband or believe he would be a help to her. And another 9 percent said they will vote for her because the nation needs a woman to be president.
On the Republican side, Merrill found Arizona Sen. John McCain maintaining a wide lead. He tallied the backing of 28 percent of likely voters — 41 percent if you add in those who are leaning in his direction.